https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/04/world/canada-stabbing-attacks
10 dead 15 injured
Evil people will always find a way to kill others.
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Monsieur_PatateThe implication is that a lot of firearm homicides were likely prevented while the others remained stable? There was not more homicides from other weapons, it remained stable from the previous years. You didn't even look at the study, did you? Too many words for you I guess.
Look at 1992-2002 for LHS, all the values are close to the mean, it's a low standard deviation, from a statistical perspective it's about as stable as it gets across the entire dataset. And LHS was not on a sustained downward trend either prior to 1992:
The one argument you could make just by looking at the graph here is that RHS was already on a slight downward trend since 1986 (yeah I'm helping you out because you're struggling pretty hard here). To that I'll counter by saying that the trend accelerated following 1996 with the two largest drops registered post-1988. I'd also point you to the other study I previously linked that determined the odds of the drop in mass shootings being due to chance and not the agreement at 1 in 200,000.
Nothing is ever 100% in the world of stats, but based on the data available here, seems pretty likely that the agreement prevented homicides rather than transferred them to another weapon as you suggested.
Additionally, the reason the significant RHS drop didn't impact the overall homicide rate that much like you said is simply because firearm homicides were only a fraction of overall homicides in Australia at the time (only 18%).
Do the same math in the US where firearm homicides account for 79% of all homicides and you're likely to get a more significant overall drop here.
Lastly, Australia had a much smaller problem then that the US does today. Our rate today is 3 times what Australia's rate was in 1990, and that's after years of riding the global downward trend too. That would also contribute to expecting proportionally more lives saved by doing the same thing in the US.
And as a side-note, although you traded horses many times since making your original 'argument' that gun ownership prevents homicides (lol), it is disproved by this use case too, just in case you still had doubts.
Craw_DaddyMy god you are truly a dumb fuck. If the number of firearm homicides went down but the number of over all homicides stayed the same then the number of non-firearm homicides didn’t rEmAiN StAbLE, it went up you dumb fuck
Craw_DaddyYeah I’m honest unlike you. Go read some more vox articles idiot. Gun control didn’t work in Australia and France can suck my balls
Monsieur_PatateI've given you countless data points and studies proving you wrong, not only have you failed to provide evidence for any of your 'claims', but you've also failed to counter any of the data I presented going against your arguments (and you jumped from one idea to the next to pathetically try and save face).
All I'm doing is showing you the data, sorry you don't like it because facts don't fit the narrative you've been spoon-fed, looks like your feelings are hurt.
Please, go ahead and show me how the 2 published and peer reviewed Australian studies demonstrating the overwhelmingly likely efficacy of their gun regulations posted in this thread are wrong?
I'll be sure to point those research teams to this thread so you can educate them buddy.
Craw_DaddyI could look up 100 studies proving your dumb ass wrong but I have a life lmao. Australian gun control didn’t work and you can’t do simple math. Fuckin moron
Monsieur_PatatePlease, go ahead and show me how the 2 published and peer reviewed Australian studies demonstrating the overwhelmingly likely efficacy of their gun regulations posted in this thread are wrong?
I'll be sure to point those research teams to this thread so you can educate them buddy.
Craw_DaddyYa know I can't believe I actually did this, I really need to get a life apparently, but I actually went out and pulled the numbers on homicides from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and population data from the UN.
The rate of homicide per 100k for these given years is as follows:
1996: 3.77
1997: 3.69
1998: 3.86
1999: 3.96
2000: 3.98
2001: 4.20
2002: 3.93
2003: 3.54
As you can see clearly and as I said before: THE OVERALL RATE OF HOMICIDE STAYED THE SAME IN SPITE OF GUN CONTROL. In fact, it went up! now kindly go fuck yourself with your shitty StUdIEs and confirmation bias.
Here are the data sets I used. You can crunch the numbers yourself, moron.
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/crime-and-justice/recorded-crime-victims/2021/1.%20Victims%20of%20crime%2C%20Australia%20%28Tables%201%20to%208%29.xlsx
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AUS/australia/population#:~:text=The%20population%20of%20Australia%20in,a%201.51%25%20increase%20from%202018.
Monsieur_PatateSo glad you took the time out of your busy schedule! I'm happy to keep embarrassing you by providing the answers you would already have had you actually read that study from Australian National University.
Had you read it, you'd have seen that they've broken it down much further for good reasons. Your raw data is not wrong, but you fail to understand that this doesn't show what you think it does because of your limited understanding of statistics (and somewhat limited cognitive abilities, but that's okay, I'm happy to help).
You won't hear it from me, so here's their verbatim answer to your argument that because the overall rate remained stable, it means there was substitution and the firearm homicides were just replaced by non-firearm homicides:
"Two findings mitigate against the notion of substantial method substitution. First, non-firearm suicides and homicides fell substantially on aggregate in Australia in the period 1997–2006. Second, the estimated time pattern of the response of non-firearm deaths (suicides in particular) is not what we would expect to see in the case of method substitution. It is also inconsistent with suggestions, based on time series analysis, that the uptick in non-firearm suicides in the period 1997–2000 could have been a consequence of the buyback.
Our results show, by contrast, that that jump occurred primarily in the states where the fewest guns were handed in, and where the gun buyback would have been expected to have the least effect."
Go look at the details of the analysis if you still doubt their findings. And please do not hesitate to reach out to the research team so you can educate them on how their methodology is wrong and you know better lmao.
As a reminder, the general conclusion of the study is "We find that the buyback led to a drop in the firearm suicide rates of almost 80%, with no significant effect on nonfirearm death rates. The effect on firearm homicides is of similar magnitude but is less precise. The results are robust to a variety of specification checks and to instrumenting the state-level buyback rate."
"AuStRaLiAm GuN CoNtRoL DidN't WoRk" You're such a joke lmao.
Craw_DaddySo I’m other words my numbers are correct but the researchers in the study you found on google manipulated their numbers to match a bias they had going into the study. Good to know.
Monsieur_PatateNo lol, in other words: You're out of your depth and have no idea how statistics work. The study literally explains how they analyzed and interpreted, not only the same raw data you found, but also many many additional data points to come to their conclusion.
Contrary to you, this is a serious scientific study using proper methodology, they didn't spend 5 minutes on google trying to cherry pick numbers to try and save face on a ski forum lmao.
If you thought the study was flawed, you'd point to specifics in their work, but you can't. (let's be real, you obviously don't have the intellect to even understand their findings, let alone try and poke holes in it)
So your next strategy is to discredit the study? "researchers in the study you found on google are biased"
This is a published and peer reviewed study from the Australian National University, which is a public research university with 6 Nobel laureates among its faculty. But hey, forget these guys, Craw_Daddy said they were not a reliable source because their findings didn't match his political viewpoint!
I'm sure anyone reading this will appreciate the irony in you calling them biased.
You're struggling so hard it's hilarious.
Craw_DaddyLol how did I cherry pick numbers? Go look at the xcel file from the Australian government under the “homicide” section. It’s literally that easy. I don’t give a shit about your biased study. My numbers don’t lie. The rate of homicide did not go down in spite of the rate of firearm homicides going down
Monsieur_PatateYou don't even understand the numbers you picked, that's my entire point lol. There's a reason why the rate did not go down, the study explains it, and you're refusing to read it.
You're basically saying that your own 'conclusion' (from reading a single data point) is more scientifically valid than the conclusion of a peer-reviewed study from a reputable research university leveraging hundreds of data points and proven statistical models.
That's a very strong argument, you've really outdone yourself with that one.
Craw_DaddyLol Jesus Christ man you just won’t quit. We’ve been discussing the rate of homicide per 100k since the beginning of the argument. I am showing you beyond a shadow of a doubt what that rate is in a country that implemented strict gun control measures and you can clearly see that the number does not go down, it goes up. That rate is composed of a firearm and non-firearm homicide rate. If, as you have been claiming, the firearm homicide went down in those years then the non-firearm rate WENT UP during that same period. I’m sitting here saying 2 + 2 = 4 and you’re trying to claim it’s 3 because I’m not accounting for other factors. You look so fucking dumb right now lmao
Monsieur_PatateThe research referenced is also using homicide per 100k as a data point, even broken down by province lol.
You have not proven anything beyond a shadow of a doubt, if you think that you're actually even more pathetic than I thought. I literally gave you an actual peer reviewed scientific study disproving your point and you keep pushing your personal 'analysis' as a fact? You're desperate. The study directly addresses the point you're making and disproves it, yet you refuse to read it. I understand why though, after I have proven you wrong on every single one of the weak arguments you brought up in this thread, that's all you have left at this point, you poor thing.
I'm sorry to break it to you, but no one will take your 'opinion' over the conclusion of a peer reviewed scientific study from a reputable research university, if you think otherwise your delusional on top of being an idiot.
I'm sorry the reality of data is hurting your feelings so much.
Craw_DaddyLook at the numbers yourself then dip shit. Unless the Australian government conspired to inflate their homicide numbers or the UN is inflating Australian population numbers then the homicides rates I gave you are correct beyond a shadow a shadow of a doubt lmao. You’re so dumb I’m honestly embarrassed for you. You can’t even do simple math lol
**This post was edited on Sep 10th 2022 at 4:29:54pm
Monsieur_PatateHoly shit, you gotta be trolling at this point, you can't possibly be that dumb? Read the study and please stop embarrassing yourself, I'm starting to feel bad.
The study literally explains in great detail why coming to your conclusion is wrong. Simply put so maybe you'll understand (not holding my breath tho) they have the data you have (in addition to numerous other data points, as I've already explained), and after doing an analysis of ALL the data to isolate and understand possible factors and variables, their conclusion is that you are wrong. And yes, I believe them over you, because unlike you and you fifth grade understanding of math, they're actually qualified to make a statistical study.
I don't want to spoil you because I'm sure you'll read the study one day (lol), but by looking at state by state numbers (and not just a single country-level data point like you did) and comparing both firearm homicides and non-firearm homicides to the number of gun buybacks per state, state specific regulations, and a bunch of other variables, they were able to prove statistically that there was no substitution. They demonstrated the statistical efficacy of stricter gun control, and also explained that the the buy-backs work better in tandem with strict regulations (as opposed to only buybacks). They also cover a bunch of other topics and findings in the study, it's pretty extensive, as if it were a peer-reviewed study from a reputable research university, you should really read it.
I know most of what I said probably flew over your head, so in simpler terms: you're wrong, you don't even understand why, and while that's pretty sad, it's not surprising.
Craw_DaddyThere you have it folks. The Australians were able to prove “statistically” that 2 + 2 does not equal 4. And it’s PeEr ReViEwEd!! Lmao you’re such a joke man.
also France fuckin sucks. Go eat some snails Pepe le bitch
I could also kick your fuckin ass. I want you to know that.
**This post was edited on Sep 10th 2022 at 5:29:12pm
Monsieur_PatateI know the job is done when the only argument you have left is a physical threat lmao, I can now peacefully exit the thread.
Better luck next time buddy!
Craw_DaddySince you’re just going to start using hypothetical scenarios here, let me offer an alternative one. If people in Canada had access to firearms then this incident likely wouldn’t have happened or far fewer would have been killed because the victims would have had the means to defend themselves. Guns are used defensively millions of times each year in the US.
People can easily make bombs or drive trucks into crowded areas and rack up even larger kill counts than they could with a gun. So I’ll say it again, evil people will always find a way to kill others. Gun laws and hypotheticals won’t change that.
Craw_Daddy. Australian gun control didn’t work and you can’t do simple math. Fuckin moron
S.J.WAustralian here. Yes it did. The gun buyback was extremely successful. And it was one of John Howard’s crowing achievements.
Craw_DaddyLol well the numbers and several experts say otherwise but you can go fuck a kangaroo about it or whatever it is you dumb fucks do. Too bad you don’t live in the greatest nation ever conceived.
**This post was edited on Sep 10th 2022 at 9:20:26pm
S.J.WWhat we don’t do is die in preventable mass shootings in schools.
Craw_DaddyWant to guess what the odds of being involved in a mass shooting are in a country of over 300 million? I'll give you a hint they're pretty low. Do you walk outside and fear being struck by lightning on a regular basis?
S.J.WNo because being struck by lightning isn’t preventable. Mass shootings are.
Craw_Daddybeing struck by lightning is entirely preventable you idiot. god you Aussies are stupid as shit... we need to just steal all your Australian Shepards, didgeridoos, and boomerangs and let china come butt rape you assholes since you'd be completely fucked without our military protecting you. I give tens of thousands of dollars to my government each year. why the fuck should you benefit from that? so sad
S.J.WGood one cunt
Craw_DaddyNa it’s really not. I’m only half joking. I wish my government spent less money on the military and more on community outreach and mental health counseling to prevent a lot of homicides and suicides from occurring. Instead we spend billions each year on something that drains our resources and directly benefits your country. And then people like you have the nerve to say we should take away a god given right from our citizens. How about you just defend yourselves then since you want to tell us how to live.
yugonaPeople at all levels fail to comprehend that this is a multifaceted problem.
Craw_DaddyHow about you just defend yourselves then since you want to tell us how to live.
DingoSeanNah sorry dude but it's the ease of access and proliferation of dangerous guns. Plain and simple.
Craw_DaddyOh is that why the rate of homicides in Australia didn’t go down for 5 years when they implemented gun control? If it’s just the guns then it should have gone down immediately right? Well it didn’t.
Craw_DaddyLol well the numbers and several experts say otherwise
Monsieur_Patate
Well, then surely you can give us at least one peer reviewed study on the matter from one of those 'several experts', right?
Spoiler alert: You can't, because they don't exist and you're making shit up to pathetically try and save face.
Craw_Daddyhttps://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Australian-Firearms-Buyback-and-its-Effect-on-Lee-Suardi/0d453d62c468f0a01a3a7b76b2a0f27169f94299
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2122854
huh? what was that? I can't find any peer-reviewed studies to support what I'm saying?? Well here are two. Get the fuck out of my thread bitch.
Monsieur_PatateI'll counter you with the most recent study on the matter (2018): https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/penn-postdoctoral-researchers-study-of-australian-gun-control-laws/?utm_source=Primary&utm_campaign=8a93833cd6-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_03_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3777f2ca8f-8a93833cd6-43449961
Get the fuck out of your own thread, bitch!
DingoSeanNah sorry dude but it's the ease of access and proliferation of dangerous guns. Plain and simple.
DingoSeanLol Australia has been defending itself and its possessions just fine since 1945, and they haven't had a mass shooting since they banned all the big guns...
And don't even say they're gonna get taken over by China without the US - China is all bark and no bite militarily, not to mention their navy is wholly incapable of such a manoeuvre.
Craw_Daddylol I don't care. fuck your studies. All you do is search google for things that confirm your bias. I went out and got the data directly from the Australian government's website in spite of the fact that it could have proved me wrong and calculated the homicide rate myself. you're such an annoying little gnat, I could slap you across the mouth and you wouldn't do a thing about it bitch. get out of my thread. don't @me, just leave, you pussy.
**This post was edited on Sep 11th 2022 at 12:26:46pm
Monsieur_PatateOh oh, someone's big mad!
I'm sorry your feelings are hurt by an "annoying little gnat" proving you wrong on a ski forum. You seem easily triggered, so I'll take my leave before causing you an aneurysm, we wouldn't want that!
(and maybe consider seeing a therapist about those violent thoughts you're having? Seems unhealthy to me)
Toodaloo!
Craw_DaddyOh is that why the rate of homicides in Australia didn’t go down for 5 years when they implemented gun control? If it’s just the guns then it should have gone down immediately right? Well it didn’t.
HiHowAreYouDangerous people are the problem. Guns are the solution. For example, if I pass through Jem's neighborhood, I'm going to be CCing. You just never know around some people.
DingoSeanLol Youre cherrypicking the fuck out of a statistic. compare Australian gun homicides to those in the USA today.
It's clear as day.
HiHowAreYouSo much so that there is an entire term coined for this phenomenon. China's final warning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning
Craw_DaddyI’m getting the number of homicides committed in a country that implemented many of the exact gun control measures you want. I don’t see how that’s cherry picking, it’s a case study in gun control and it’s pretty clear that it had no effect…
DingoSeanAustralia has about the same population and economic size as Texas...
Which one has had more gun homicides since 1996?
Craw_DaddyIs Australia on the border with Mexico? Does one of its major metropolitan areas share a border with Juarez? No? Then I guess comparing them is kind of dumb. What Australia is is an isolated island nation and that eliminates many of the variables that we have here in the US. What we see with them is that gun control did not effect the rate of homicide.
DingoSeanLol Buddy you can't go blaming this on Mexico and immigrants. Mexico isn't bringing guns into the USA, but rather the other way around. Juarez has it bad BECAUSE it's next to the USA.
The biggest variable in the USA for firearms-related deaths is the fact that it's really fuckin easy to get guns.
yungonaCrazy how you two idiots are still arguing after a week. What are you looking to accomplish?
HiHowAreYouYou all are idiots.
It's my right to own as many weapons as I want. You want this fixed? Remove the violence gene from people. Until then, deal with it.
>A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.