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The question is....which gamble will y'all choose? Higher probability of multiple resorts closing and getting lower percent credited, or lower probability but higher payout of the single resort selection?
Which mountain will you choose? Like a gamble but I would think places in CO or VT or CA could all equally have a high chance of closing as they are either near major cities in a day's drive or are in states twitchy to close. Some investigative and epidemiologic guesswork is further needed. I shall consult with my colleagues in Pumpkin Tower and release my recommendations by 9/10.
I can't see how any single resort is just gonna close on its own accord in a place like Colorado. The only thing I see happening is the governor shutting everything down, like he did last Spring.
Can guarantee that Utah resorts will stay open. Barring a federal mandate to close businesses our state govt. / summit county / SL County govt. does not give a fuck about Covid and will keep shit open no matter what. Cases have been going down here but they are still 300+ a week and going strong and everything is open in SLC and surrounding counties.
So a bit late on this but realize now stupid thread is stupid. The options for one destination only are all Alterra resorts except copper and eldora. Just like a casino, the house holds all the cards and nothing matters.
Last year Alterra closed all at once even in WV where shit wasn't happening. But in the interest of completeness here's the rec anyway. Added in some covid peak predictions I found from the web too.
Possibilities:
-Alterra and local resorts take a hands off approach in interest of profits and leaves it up to muncipalities (most likely). Unlikely that states will shut down ski resorts again. Skiers might riot.
-Colorado is the only state with a track record of government mandated closures but that was easy because most of the season was over anyway and the hit to the economy wouldn't be as big as peak season. Expected peak 1/11/21.
-Vermont resorts are a bad choice. The state has insanely low covid rates and New England mask rates are crazy high so lower transmission. Expected peak 3/9/21 also reinforces the unlikely event of closing.
-UT and WA resorts are unlikely to close. Rationale: politics and history. Of note these states have the earliest predicted peaks of 12/25 and 12/30 respectively and that could be significant.
-CA unlikely to close as didn't before and also had a recent peak. Only thing I could see is if San Francisco or Sacramento has an outbreak and fuck up Tahoe. Nevada has an expected peak of 2/24/21 and considering its proximity to Tahoe, this could add to the risk. CA peak 3/1/21. The only thing CA has that could be problematic are its high population and liberal government which tends to lean with tighter covid restrictions.
-WV is too remote. Snowshoe won't close.
Best guess: no resorts will close unless something goes drastically wrong and even then it won't be an entire season.
Best choice: just leave at all destinations and if shit closes you might get a few bucks back to buy a case.
Risky bet 1/1,000,000: pick Winter Park. Proximity to Denver and high skier visits make this the most likely affected resort from an outbreak. Still I could see monetary losses preventing corporate offices from shutting it down unless a wicked bad outbreak or state government mandated; local governments appear to be siding with ski resorts. I highly doubt Alterra will do a country wide shutdown again but rather based on outbreaks if necessary.
Tldr: I'm dumb. This was a pointless endeavor. Probably worse than Dolan's ARV base dilemma.