The milky way is 3.2 billion years old. Rate of star formation in our galaxy is about 7 per year, which is only a guesstimate. Around 45% of sun-like stars have planets, I guess. However, many planets go undetected so, the percentage could be close to 100%. I guess i’ll pick 42% because that’s the meaning of everything. 2.5 habitable planets per solar system, disregard irregular orbits. Thus, we have about 315 billion habitable planets in the milkyway alone. Can all habitable planets develop organic life at some point? If we discover that Mars once harbored organic life, than the chance of a habitable planet developing organic life could increase significantly. 50% sounds good, because Earth might just be a special case.
You could debate whether of the billions of species only one has become truly intelligent. On the contrary, life may develop to complexity so over a long period of time intellect is inevitable. I’lll choose 42% of the fraction of habitable planets that support life that develops. Of the 315 billion habitable planets 66 billion are life bearing planets.
Other life forms can create technology that gives off detectable signals of their existence into space? Extraterrestrials communicate with me while i’m asleep, though i’m one of the few so about 12% to 15% of life forms are capable. So, L equals 100,000,000 years, L being the total time a civilization sends a signal into space. That being said 2,646,000 civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible emulating from a current past light cone.
If you were to multiply the number of times a civilization could re-devolp the number would increase exponentially.
I don’t doubt that in the past extraterrestrial life forms visited our planet, teaching the young egyptian kids and awarding them with their powers.
It is very obvious that ISON is a tri-magnetic frequency like fence giving of an electromagnetic pulse sequence. I hope these aliens will be friendly with us,
What if they’re actually nice and one of them makes a newschoolers account. What if they make like a ski posse and put out vids every week! It would be zoo cool to see an alien pown that ginger on newschoolers or heath bar. I mean what if??
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