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The Official Presidential Election Thread

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danderson.
Posts: 6560 - Karma: 5,252
Predictions? Post who you're voting for and why. I figured I would make this a tad early for all the predictions.
Oct 31 2012 5:17PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
You should ask me how to get to Chad's gap
Nov 4 2012 1:48AM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
I will.
Nov 4 2012 1:49AM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
I will also ask if you can even double. You have 5 days to think it over.
Nov 4 2012 1:50AM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
I don't even fuck with anything less than trips bitch.
Nov 4 2012 2:09AM
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AwR
Posts: 5147 - Karma: 1,880
An old college professor showed me this site last election. On mobile so no clicky http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

I'm not saying it's 100% correct but the guy takes a math approach to analyzing all the polls.
Nov 4 2012 8:26AM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
The 46/51 numbers are based on using a "likely voter" model. The problem with such models is that they are largely arbitrary. Gallup's "registered voter" results show it as 48/48. I'll concede that republican optimism in "Anyone But Obama" seems to be high, but I am not so sure we'll that equate to a 5 point spread. We'll know on Tuesday. A lot of people will either be vilified or praised for their predictions.
Nov 4 2012 2:54PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
Nate Silver is predicting the chances of Obama winning the popular vote at about 81%. He came to that conclusion through an extrapolation based upon the state polls and their vote share. If the turnout looks like it did in 2010 (a highly favorable year to republicans) he'll beat Romney by 2%.

That's why I took the bet. His state poll extrapolation method has done better than national polls in past elections so I'm pretty confident I'll get that film. If not, oh well, it's only like $15.
Nov 4 2012 3:10PM
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danderson.
Posts: 6560 - Karma: 5,252
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/hashout-location-best-reason-vote-mitt-romney-election-105108010--election.html

This is sad.
Nov 4 2012 3:23PM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
I also forgot to put Gary Johnson in the factoring, he will definitely take a shit ton of votes away from Romney. So, I retract my prediction that Romney will win the popular vote. Hell, I'm voting for Johnson and even I forget to put him in as a factor sometimes. If people voted more on principle and common sense, rather than on hate and which guy would benefit them more at the expense of others, Gary would be the front-runner. But, that's a whole 'nother debate.
Nov 4 2012 4:31PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Silver actually takes Gary into consideration in his model. You could also make the same argument about Jill Stein.
Nov 4 2012 4:35PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
I'm not sure how many votes Johnson would take from Romney, since he's way different than Romney on a lot of issues. I think a lot of the people who vote for Johnson might not vote at all otherwise, or may even have voted for Obama.

I'd like to see some stats on it.

Nov 4 2012 4:36PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Big lawsuit about provisional ballots in Ohio:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/ohios-provisional-ballot-order-the-biggest-legal-story-of-the-weekend/264498/
Nov 4 2012 4:37PM
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theBearJew
Posts: 10951 - Karma: 15,633
Since the NFL's Redskins moved to Washington in 1937, the rule has held true: When the team won their pre-election home game, the candidate from the party that won the previous election's popular vote won the White House. When the Redskins lost, the candidate from that party lost.

It was true for Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940, when the Redskins beat the Steelers 37-10; it was true for then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008, when the Redskins lost to the Steelers by 23 to 6; and it was true for every election in between. It was even true in 2004, when George W. Bush secured re-election after the Redskins lost to the Packers -- because Al Gore had won the popular vote in 2000.

In today's game, the Redskins lost 21-13 against the Carolina Panthers. If the Redskins Rule holds true, Mitt Romney will win the election on Tuesday. This year also marks the seventh time Election Day has fallen on Nov. 6, for which the GOP record is an undefeated 6 and 0.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/the-redskins-rule-favors-romney-148367.html

GG. Romney wins.
Nov 4 2012 4:41PM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
It's really hard to say, but I'd say that Johnson voters, if forced to vote for either Obama or Romney, 75% or more would probably vote for Romney. But, that doesn't really take in account people who wouldn't have voted if Johnson wasn't in the race. I can say for certain that Johnson being in the race is going to hurt Romney more than Stein will to Obama.

Plus, isn't Stein handcuffed in jail somewhere right now? Hahahaha
Nov 4 2012 4:42PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
That's one of the weakest arguments I've ever heard. Someone needs to learn the difference between a correlation and a causation.
Nov 4 2012 4:44PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
That's not funny asshole. She got arrested because she was fighting for the right of third party candidates (including your man Gary Johnson) to be involved in the presidential debates. If Johnson had balls like hers he would have been right there next to her.
Nov 4 2012 4:46PM
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theBearJew
Posts: 10951 - Karma: 15,633
its FACT though.
Nov 4 2012 4:47PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
There's a difference between something being a fact and something being relevant. I could draw up a graph between snowfall in the sierras and who controls the house of representatives and there might be a strong correlation, that doesn't mean snow turns the house over to the GOP.
Nov 4 2012 4:50PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Click for larger image
Nov 4 2012 4:52PM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
No, I'm not talking about that. That was a couple weeks back. I'm talking about her getting arrested last Friday for trespassing while aiding protesters opposing the Keystone XL pipeline.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/green-party-candidate-jill-stein-arrested/2012/10/31/0f309970-2373-11e2-8448-81b1ce7d6978_story.html
Nov 4 2012 4:54PM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
*Wednesday
Nov 4 2012 4:56PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Here's a link since the auto re-sizing made it blurry: http://xkcd.com/1122/
Nov 4 2012 4:56PM
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theBearJew
Posts: 10951 - Karma: 15,633
lol I know. Just interesting...
Nov 4 2012 4:59PM
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Anti_Panda
Posts: 234 - Karma: 95
somebody doesnt know how to have any fun. skiing forum political debate threads are serious business. rube
Nov 4 2012 5:00PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
Even better.
Nov 4 2012 5:05PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Cool tree showing the path to 270 by swing state.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?smid=fb-share
Nov 4 2012 5:09PM
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ILLinoisance
Posts: 3527 - Karma: 5,398
Okay.... I'll agree to disagree.
Nov 4 2012 5:12PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
I predict Romney will take Florida, Obama will win Ohio, Romney will win NC, Obama will win VA and Wisconsin.
Nov 4 2012 5:28PM
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cwillygood
Posts: 6831 - Karma: 1,829
very cool, interesting
Nov 4 2012 5:38PM
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50in07
Posts: 3070 - Karma: 1,471
Voted for Romney this past Thurseday.
Nov 4 2012 5:40PM
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danderson.
Posts: 6560 - Karma: 5,252

Nov 4 2012 6:28PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Ryan Warns Evangelicals: Obama Threatens “Judeo-Christian Values”

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/ryan-obama-plan-compromisesthose-judeo-christ

Nov 4 2012 9:11PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
That's pretty funny coming from a follower of Ayn Rand, who's worldview is the antithesis of what Jesus taught.
Nov 4 2012 9:32PM
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PhaedeD
Posts: 11498 - Karma: 327
jesus aint even real.
Nov 4 2012 10:33PM
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shibby
Posts: 7088 - Karma: -19
just going to post this here because you mentioned ayn rand and it applies to many people here on NS

"Ayn Rand is one of those things that a lot of us, when we were 17 or 18 and feeling misunderstood, we’d pick up. Then, as we get older, we realize that a world in which we’re only thinking about ourselves and not thinking about anybody else … that’s a pretty narrow vision."

Nov 4 2012 11:15PM
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theBearJew
Posts: 10951 - Karma: 15,633
Serious question, and I dont want to start a debate thread so I figured I would ask here where all the genius political minds of NS are.

If gay marriage is banned, would same sex couples who have been married in states that allow it lose their marriage? Would their marriage become null and void? Or would they be grandfathered in?
Nov 4 2012 11:16PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
"There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old's life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."

-John Rogers
Nov 4 2012 11:18PM
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GEORGEzimmerman
Posts: 1473 - Karma: 440
it wont become illegal.
Nov 4 2012 11:18PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
Depends on the law and how the courts interpret it.

Here in CA, couples who were married while gay marriage was legal are still married even though Prop 8 passed which define marriage as only between a man and a woman.

None of it makes any sense and it's a dying morality. Gay marriage will be legal in all 50 states within our lifetimes.
Nov 4 2012 11:21PM
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k-rob
Posts: 14217 - Karma: 2,891
that depends on when we die. if i die tomorrow i'll die knowing that america is homophobic.
Nov 4 2012 11:25PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
Ok let me qualify that.

Assuming we have expected lifespans, gay marriage will be legal in all 50 states within our lifetimes.
Nov 4 2012 11:27PM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
Other things on the ballot across the country:

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/11/the-10-biggest-legal-stories-to-watch-on-election-night/264443/
Nov 4 2012 11:28PM
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GEORGEzimmerman
Posts: 1473 - Karma: 440
way to take it in a 6th graders point of view. as the years go by the close minded people are getting older and dying out so gay marriage is becoming more and more excepted. its not going to become illegal anymore and even if it does, its only temporary. in 100 years, all states will have it legalized. the only reason im reluctant to say less than 100 is because of the bible belt states.
Nov 4 2012 11:28PM
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k-rob
Posts: 14217 - Karma: 2,891
little kids don't bullshit themselves and neither do i.
Nov 4 2012 11:31PM
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colder152000
Posts: 589 - Karma: 1,176
how many days after the election is the official winner determined?
Nov 4 2012 11:33PM
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skier_boy26
Posts: 11295 - Karma: 502
Could be Tuesday night, could be weeks later akin to 2000. Totally depends on how the shit flows in.
Nov 4 2012 11:34PM
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Bill.Nye
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 2,109
We will probably know tuesday night.
Nov 4 2012 11:37PM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
FLOHVA will determine it all.
Nov 5 2012 1:00AM
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line686
Posts: 406 - Karma: 205
Did my part as a registered voter of Los Angeles county and voted to keep condoms out of porn.

You're welcome.
Nov 5 2012 1:15AM
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volvotom
Posts: 2045 - Karma: 712
I remember when the city tried to pass an ordinance against this, pr0n is a powerful lobby.

I love driving through the valley and getting to see all of the studios.
Nov 5 2012 1:58AM
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