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well, the snow actually helped. kinda nice in ante up these last few days
Sat. 8 PM Update:
A very interesting day on the models. I wasn't able to see the new runs today until this evening and was nervous the models back tracked after I put out a forecast this morning. It was the opposite today. Remember the Canadian showing 4-5 feet of snow along the crest that we threw out this morning because it was an outlier? Well watch this on the other models today.
Here is the GFS 6z, 12z, and 18z showing increased precip with each run.
6z
12z
18z
So the GFS is up from 12-18 inches along the crest to 2-3 feet. The European is on the same trend today. Here is a look at the 0z and then the 12z runs. The Euro only runs 2 times a day.
0z
12z
The Euro is trying to drop 3-5 feet along the crest on the 12z run vs. 12-18 previously on the 0z run. The Canadian which was showing 4-6 feet this morning is then only one that decreased precip into the 3-5 foot range along the crest in line with the Euro.
We threw out the Canadian this morning with the other models showing only an 1-1.5 inches of liquid vs 5-6 inches. This evening they are all showing 2.5-5 inches of liquid. Not a bad day for trends on the models.
This is the game we will play over the next 4 days until the storm arrives Thursday. We will check the trend each day. Hopefully we keep trending wetter not dryer. I am still VERY cautious about how much precip the models are showing. There is a nice moisture tap and a cold front pushing down from the North which are good ingredients. However, it is rare to get a big storm after this long of a dry spell. It is usually harder to knock down the ridge. The storm on Tuesday may be doing a lot of that though before the jet stream pushes South down the coast.
Keep saying those prayers...BA