The first rule of successful, long-term investing - do not try to beat the market. You may as well turn off all financial news, and run your own valuations on companies with products you believe in. By doing this, you can 'beat the market' but don't make that your goal. I did like the point on consumer expectations - yes, stocks are essentially directly tied to consumer expectations. A good product (at least in consumer's eyes) will produce good returns as long as the company has solid management that won't run the company into the ground.
If anyone's interested in a good starter novel on value investing (long-term investing), pick up Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor. It can be dry at times, but it is worth a read. As a side note, he was one of Buffet's professors and heavily influenced how Buffet invests (long-term).
If you're looking for short-term success, turn that tv back on and guzzle up any product news you can find. Valuable new product releases, etc. heavily sway investor's views. As well, though you must be careful, look at historical nuances. Retail stocks drive heavily through November and December (its shopping season), so if you can buy ahead then sell before new years on a retail stock you believe in, you might skim some profit. Efficient market hypothesis negates this though, and claims the season is already priced into a stock. The efficient market hypothesis, while valuable, cannot explain extra-ordinary returns people receive on a yearly basis. Also if you're a day trader, look into more obscure ones - I've never invested in the superbowl nuance, but historically it's done pretty well (I don't have the balls to make this bet).
