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It's very likely that you will have a powder day, but as other people have said (in a more dick way), it's pretty unpredictable. For areas like Colorado, January can get some great snow days, but also it can be cold and icey. Just keep your fingers crossed - statistically if you are there for a week, there will be at least 1 pow day!
Yeah early Jan is generally pretty good for Vail, I've had some sick days around new years, but it usually seems to hit a dry spell late Jan / early Feb.