Brain bender

You switch.

statistically speaking, you switch. you go from a 33.3% chance of guessing right to a 66.7%

i don't think i understand the question because of the way it is written.....why the fuck would you choose to stay with a door that has a goat? of course increasing the the odds from 1:3 to 1:2 is going to be beneficial to the player. but, if you mean the door contains a goat and the player is unaware of this fact, then choosing a different door does not change the players chances of finding the car...it is still 1:3. i'm still confused

Keep the goat and get goats milk for life

Player chooses a door. The host opens a door with a goat. Out of the doors that are still closed, one of which the player is standing at, there is one door with a car, one door with the other goat. They can stay where they are at, or they can switch to the other unopened door.

Why the fuck would you not choose to open another door?

This was in the movie 21/the book bringing down the house

you are not getting it. You pick a door, the host opens a door that you did not pick, which has a goat in it. if you picked a goat door, he opens the other goat door, if you picked the car door, he opens either one of the goat doors. After he opens one of the loosing doors, you are allowed to either switch to the other remaining door or stay with your original choice. In either case, all 3 doors will be opened

This was on the movie 21.

this

goats get better gas mileage...

switch

statistically speaking i will take a prize that is not a goat 99.9% of the time. i'm looking for prizes, not chores.

It doesnt make any difference. you have to look at each choice as a new situation, not a change. in the first situation, you have 33% chance to guess right, in the second, your previous choice makes no difference, there is 66% chance of getting it right, doesnt matter which you chose for the first situation.

its like flipping a balanced coin, 50% chance heads, 50% chance tails.

there is 1/4 chance of getting heads twice in a row, so on your second throw, you shouldnt bet on heads because its unlikely to bet on heads, its not often you get heads twice in a row right? doesnt matter, that specific throw is still 50% heads and 50% tails.

looking at the entire situation based on grade 12 statistics, you should change your guess. In reality you arent going to be any more likely to win the car.

thats how I was thinking about it too, that it shouldnt matter, at that point it is a coin flip and your chances are 50/50 whether you stay with your original choice or you switch. But when they ran simulations, there actually was around a 16.6% difference, and when somebody wrote about it in a paper, people from all over the country were sending it letters saying how there is no reason it should make a difference, even professors with PHDs.

from a statistical view-point, id go skiing with both goats

this was stupid

type of car??? do I really wanna make the effort to switch if its a shitty VW beetle?

i explained that in my post, trust me we already did this problem in statistics, make a probability tree, and look at the second split. that is the probability of choosing the car or the goat after the first goat has been removed. reread through my post to get a better understanding of exactly what i am saying, i already said everything you did. then i explained why in that instance it doesnt matter.

let me explain this in a better way.

imagine i pick door 1 of 3, they then open door 3 which is reveals a goat, so now i am left with my original choice of door 1, or changing my choice to door 2.

then they say, "sorry you took to long to choose wether to switch or not, NEXT!"

 they then take the revealed goat away, hide the 3rd door (the one they opened, now only door one and door 2 are visible from the contestants chair) and bring in a new guy who doesnt know that i ever existed, and they dont tell him that there used to be three doors.  instead they tell him that there are 2 doors and that one holds a goat, and the other holds a new car, and he has to choose.

now look at the situation, the 2/3 chance of being wrong that seemed to guide me to change my guess does not apply to this man, he only knows that there are two doors, one with a car and one with a goat.

there is a 50/50 chance for either door to have the car, but that doesnt match up with the 2/3rds chance that door 2 had for me. thats because the two thirds chance only applied to the situation as a whole, my little theoretical explanation breaks the rules of the proposed question, but it shows how statistical analysis and reality don't always agree.

math says switch, the goat says baaaaa.

i lol'd

switch, its in the poker movie "21"

the host doesnt even have to know which door is the car behind if i remember correctly

Isn't this called game theory or something?

Lol black jack.