2011 2012 winter outlook

^Yeah I want fuckin Mass to also get hammered even though we have shit massachusetts at least i can do sick urban more! :)

I'll release my full winter forecast later, most likely in September, but alas, here goes.

Winter 2011-12 is trending currently toward a weak-moderate La Niña. Last season was a La Niña as well, albeit a strong one. The implications of weak La Niña vs. strong La Niña are huge. In the Pacific Northwest, it can mean the difference between a blowtorch winter (think Pineapple Express) and the winter of any skier's wildest fantasy.

Anyway, here's the lowdown.

The West Coast has two main indices to look at right now. Those are the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation--essentially, at this point this would be our growing La Niña) and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation). A negative PDO is a strong indicator of cool and wet weather for the PNW And the entire West Coast.

We know that the ENSO is trending toward a weak-moderate La Niña. We also know that, as of now, the PDO is negative and expected to stay that way, potentially spiking a bit toward positive in September, but gradually moving downward again.

What does this mean?

A weak to moderate La Niña and a negative PDO can make for a skier's wet dream. At least in the PNW. The rest of the country is harder to quantify. But generally, La Niña means warm that average weather for the South and the middle Atlantic and equal chances of below- or above-average temperatures for the Northeast and the Midwest. However, a good baseline would be to draw an imaginary line from the California-Oregon border to the Virginia-Maryland border. Most locations north of this line have a good chance of colder than average temperatures. Most places south of this line have a good chance of warmer than average temperatures. Precipitation is more difficult, except in the PNW, where these conditions bring above average precipitation.

To give you an analog (a year with conditions similar to those now; a hypothetical comparison with the upcoming winter), 2008-09 was a weak to moderate La Niña year with a negative PDO.

However, every winter is different and it is still early. But this is what forecasters are talking about right now. This is what climatologists are doing as we speak. As of now, take solace in the fact that a La Niña Watch has been issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

sooooooo would maryland is kinda sorta aboce that line then right? nice post btw

MD is iffy at best. There's no strong correlation between La Niña and winter weather for the Middle Atlantic/East, so that causes issues for forecasters. And I'm no expert by any means. I just like to read climate/forecast forums. I tend to focus on the West too. Here's a general guide for La Niña winters, though all are different.



Other indices, like the NAO and the QBO, will affect your winter. I'll try my best to outline those in my September Outlook. Stay tuned!

yessss that what i want to hear!

Only rains in Washington so I don't care what the outlook is.

We all know that. More than ever this year!

Heres the past few winters, La nina looks to be all over the place, but average mostly for the northeast

this makes me happy :)

bump, and other forecasts you guys are finding?

I looked through about 6-7 forecast and they are pretty much split between predictions. either a good winter for PNW or a meh winter for PNW

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/53551/snow-forecast-for-the-winter-of-20112012.asp

Looking good!

looking like some sick tricks are going down

cant wait for this winter to hit.

going on that site made me see the ad for GNAR and i watched it and its awesome

in mn its raining acorns, its about 10-15 degrees colder than usual and a few leaves are falling up near my cabin and a little in the twin cities.

bump, looks pretty much across the board below normal temps and normal to above normal snowfall for the northeast.

bump, any more maps?

I got maps.

Our weather models consider all of these factors and are currently showing a particularly harsh winter for many parts of the US during 2011-2012. Large parts of Central and North America will face below average temperatures with above average snowfall throughout this winter, with temperatures in many Eastern and Western parts also showing as below average with above average snowfall amounts.













Just some things us east coasters will like to see

^I think i shit my pants. The majority of those predictions looks AMAZING for NY. The thing is that they are long term forecasts and really aren't reliable

thissss!!! I have a good feeling Belleayre is going to get more than 3" this year!

I know it's kinda exciting. On those big pow days (i'm talking like 2+ dumps), i hike it over to plattekill and do some backcountry skiing.

In all seriousness a consistent snow fall would be very nice. It's better to get 2-3 inches every other night than get a foot or more every two weeks.

Catskill pow is cement and gets skied off by lunch. Steady snowfall is better for the base

everything says above normal for new mexico, which sucks but apparently a late monsoon means a wet winter and we are getting moisture every day right now which is kinda unusual, so who knows.