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and i have now watched 4 games of the packers this season (1st vikings, chargers, giants, panthers) and would like to predict that they WONT repeat. if i am wrong, so be it. but now predicting that they repeat would be very uncreative.
so for future reference:
1) PLAYOFF SUCCESS --> RUN AND STOP THE RUN
as we all know when january comes around, you need to run and stop the run. especially in GB. remember last year? they were 5th or 6th seed, meaning no home games. the PHI game (outdoor, grass) was close as hell and should have been a loss. the falcons game (dome, fieldturf) was a blowout due to the fast track and the bears game was over when cutler went down.
they are not a very good run stopping team imo and have issues when they dont have the lead. and they dont run it as well as last year, which was a big reason for their success, but is often overlooked.
2) RODGERS, YOURE ADOPTED
rodgers is overrated. yes i said it. please read on before you kill me. he is an exceptional OVERALL QB, probably the best OVERALL QB right now. but he is not a brees/brady type passer. and certainly not decision maker.
against the chargers and giants, they would have lost if it wasnt for 3-4 third down conversions with his FEET where a defender missed the sack by 5 inches. i know, its part of his game and he does a good job of utilizing his feet. but on a lot of downs, he stands in the pocket and holds the ball too long. you know what the knack on rodgers was a few years back? yep, he held the ball too long and he still does it. a lot of times he gets sacked and on a lot of other occasions, he takes off running. in fact, he looks lost on some downs if his first read is taken away (he was sacked more often than gabbert, newton, rivers, sanchez, romo and stafford for example) . he might even have problems staying healthy if they dont change their pass-run ratio. brady has a whole different control over his offense and the pocket. best example where you see that: rodgers is not throwing the ball away. remember peyton manning? he threw the ball away on every broken play. rodgers either runs or gets sacked. i just feel like thats an awareness issue and will hurt them.
rodgers has a top 3 receiving corps. and yes i am a chargers fan and would like to say otherwise. nelson is just silly good right now while jennings, driver and finley all are pro bowl caliber players. proven by matt flynn looking great when he played last year instead of rodgers.
to rodgers credit though: he does not throw a lot of picks. thats good. but cassel and freeman did that too last year. and just to repeat myself: he is the best overall QB right now and apparently a good leader.
3) DEFENSE
their defense is not very good. matthews plays better than his stats indicate though. woodson is an average corner. yes i said that. he just gets away with a lot of calls. he has a lot of fumbles and ints, but he also gets picked on a lot. noone throws to asomugha or revis, but people are NOT afraid to throw to woodson. seriously, i am not even joking, watch a game and you will see.
they are second to last in yds allowed. we all know that the pats are last. while that is sort of useless stat, it still shows in which neighborhood they play. they lead the leauge in takeaways, yes, but the pats have only 4 less (27 vs 23). the pats allow a solid point less per game. they both are horrible on third down (44%). can you say double standard? the pats are considered "horrible" while the packers are a "championship" defense. they better wake up now because they are not. i feel like noone talks about that but everyone is ready to bash the pats D. they gave up 14 points within 2 minutes or so against the chargers to let a 21 point lead shrink to 7 points.
against the giants, they got into a shootout, whereas the pats could shut them down if it wasnt for that one last drive (that the packers D gave up too btw).
4) EVERYTHING IS GOING THEIR WAY RIGHT NOW
the 4 games i watched could all have been losses and turned on one play or the other. thats not always quality, sometimes its just luck. i remember a nasty illegal contact call and 4 challenges in favor of the packers against the giants, an unanimously (nfl highlights) horrible PI call against the chargers that extended the game winning drive on third down, the fumble at the end against the giants that bounced their way, bad red zone offense by the panthers (or else it would have been a SURE loss). the packers just had that one lucky thing per game that makes you win it. just take that fumble at the end against the giants. 1 ft in the other direction and its a fumble return TD. all the luck is deserved so far, but dont be surprised if they lose a game or two if that lucky bounce goes to the other team.
i dont hate the packers
just for the record: seriously, i am not a bears, lions or vikings fan, i dont give a fuck about the whole division, i only have slight sympathies (in the NFC) for the panthers and eagles. i expect the AFC to win the super bowl this year as their playoff field has more density and will surely send a superior team to the super bowl, while the packers wont even be there.
THE END
i know, i might be picking a little and kinda looking for something to criticize. i just think that while they are the best team right now, they are not as good as anyone thinks and i hope everybody will bump this post in february if i am wrong just for the lolz. if i am wrong, i can live with it.
watch out for the 49ers, packers fans. they run the ball and stop the run. aldon smith can get after the passer and bowman and willis can cover finley.
dont take this post too serious. i might exaggerated a little bit here and there, i just wanted to share my thoughts in general and if anyone agrees in here that the packers wont repeat and why.