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GUARENTEED Cash? Need Help From Stock Traders

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Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

Just wondering if there are any day/stock/market traders on here. Found a major discrepency in some political markets online that need serious exploiting. I THINK my math is right on this but I need to make sure before I move.

On PartyBets Jon Huntsman to be the Republican Nom for President in 2012 is at 12:1 or 8.33% chance.

On Intrade he is trading at about 17% to be the R Nom. If your not familiar with intrade basically if he becomes R nom contract closes at 100% and if he doesnt it closes at 0%. You can go  Long OR Short on Intrade, unlike PartyBets where you can only go long.

Can you not go long on Partybets and short on Intrade for guarenteed profit? Your literally printing money. Your essentially buying something for $8.33 and turning around and selling it for $17.

Ex put $500 long on Huntsman to be the nom on party bets at 12:1 for $6000 potential profit

Then put X amount of money SHORT on Huntsman at 17% (or about 5:1). Only problem is you need $83 for every $17 profit so you need some serious cash.

....................^^^^^^........... ............That is what I need to figure out here. Am I way off or on crack or something. I'm totally sleep deprived but I feel like there is serious easy money to made here...

I just re-read this again and I'm thinking there is no way to completely eliminate risk but I'm so tired and going to bed ... just confusing myself now.

Spark Notes: If I have to simplify this for you can't really help me out....

inb4 head exploding pic

May 25 2011 12:32AM
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I.B
Posts: 8137 - Karma: 24,353
dis is not spam. twust m3
May 25 2011 12:35AM
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TheStamos
Posts: 9311 - Karma: 910
Guaranteed + betting = Living on the street
May 25 2011 12:36AM
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zagfan5
Posts: 2608 - Karma: 144
sounds like the typical stock market. its guaranteed money if you pick growing stocks, but you need a lot of money to start up. i have 5k im investing in stocks later this week, and am hoping to double that in a year or two.
May 25 2011 12:37AM
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wait.what
Posts: 1694 - Karma: 529
There's your trust worthy Uncle Jessie! *themesong*
May 25 2011 12:38AM
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Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

Let me explain this in terms you understand. If an ice cream cone cost $8.33 in the store and you could walk out the door and sell it to your buddy for $17 a piece, would you do it?

May 25 2011 12:39AM
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wait.what
Posts: 1694 - Karma: 529
Let ne explain this in terms you understand. If you're so sure about this investment, then do it. Don't ask a bunch of 15-23 years olds whose parents buy their ski equipment each year. Just do it.
May 25 2011 12:42AM
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Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
Broke. Need some financing haha.
May 25 2011 12:43AM
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BenWhit
Posts: 4654 - Karma: 3,257
but is it guaranteed you could sell it to your friend for 17? I'm not at all familiar with intrade or betting in general, but if you're sure you're making money i don't see why you wouldn't.
May 25 2011 12:43AM
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TheStamos
Posts: 9311 - Karma: 910
Variables. If it seems easy in terms of $$  then its probably not true. First rule of economics, There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.  Its 110 degrees and your buddy is 100 yards away. Is he gonna pay 17 bucks for half melted ice cream? Why would you scam your buddy anyways? No, i wouldnt fuck my buddy with ice cream if thats what your asking.
May 25 2011 12:44AM
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TheStamos
Posts: 9311 - Karma: 910
But, i see what your thinking.. hmm if you have lots of money lying around and read the fine p[print then yeah i guess you could make cash.
May 25 2011 12:49AM
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Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
Think of it as buying at PS3 at K Mart for $100 and returning to Wal Mart at $200 cash. Thats the only way to simplify it
May 25 2011 12:49AM
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Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

Just figured this out. My buddy is staking me 12k.

2k long to win the R nom to pay a possible 24k profit.

10k to go short to win a possible 2k to cover the long.

If he loses the Republican nomination I break even if he wins I profit 14k. Fuck ya.

May 25 2011 1:15AM
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Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
The OP is a moron
May 25 2011 1:29AM
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Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
How so? The risk free rate right now is extremely low. I don't mind putting 12k up for a possible 50% return. If he loses the primary I've lost maybe 1.5-2% interest. Not gonna sweat it.
May 25 2011 1:35AM
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skiierman
Posts: 28699 - Karma: -5,563
if you're so confident, buy on margin. you wont, pussy.
May 25 2011 1:42AM
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Phil-X-
Posts: 7205 - Karma: 14,399
this actually is looking pretty legit, im not exactly sure about all the lingo you use but i do know a little about the market. bought at 18 one week and the next week was 28, week after 29. shit was cash.
May 25 2011 1:44AM
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Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
Yeah I also heard pyramid scheme are an eassy way to make money to, oh wait...
May 25 2011 1:46AM
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Tucker*
Posts: 184 - Karma: 109
You're doing it wrong. You need to play the penny stocks, guaranteed money… trust me i did math n shit.
May 25 2011 2:18AM
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CassiusClay
Posts: 1757 - Karma: 2
Lets say you go long on partybets for 8% or whatever it is and short for 17%. What if he does become the candidate? You've got a fat downside for that. It depends on how much you put into each bs website.
May 25 2011 2:24AM
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fujarome
Posts: 8630 - Karma: 1,561
it's real simple, i promise.

I'll get you started once your $4,000 check to me clears. Then I'll invest it, and all you need to do is keep finding more investors. I take 15% commission from each of the new investors you find (each paying $4k) and you keep the rest!


...then i of course take 20% from every new investor you find, who in turn finds themselves new investors, and so on.

We'll all get really, really rich. And there's hardly any risk.





...you know what, fuck this. I'm gonna start making some fake tall ts and shit in a sweatshop in thailand and selling em on ebay.

.........and you can help me finance that business endeavor at low, low risk...just send me a check!
May 25 2011 2:30AM
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Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
My friend almost got involved in one, I talked him out of it. My grammar sucks tonight as seen in the above posts, im just a little tired
May 25 2011 2:32AM
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CassiusClay
Posts: 1757 - Karma: 2
Buy on margin? who the fuck does that? Try naked shorting a few stocks you know will go down. Check a few online models and run at least 5-10 of your own with different binomial outcomes, then start fucking praying. Or just write some out of the money puts, buy in the money calls you know will work in your favor, easy money if you've got a lot of money to work with and a couple of cahones. If you're confident in your bet, you might do well. Or just stop trying to flip/arb, that shit'll get you nowhere unless you're a portfolio manager/hedge manager and have money to risk (within a frame). Or just read some Benjamin Graham, get educated and learn about value/defensive investing which is much better than trying to turn money. Flipping fees will quickly burn a day traders ass. A lot of choices.
May 25 2011 2:36AM
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fujarome
Posts: 8630 - Karma: 1,561
sign him up too. I'll up your commission.


Remember, it's not a scam if you're at the top. I'm not against a pyramid oligarchy, provided we all get filthy rich.
May 25 2011 2:47AM
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Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
While we are at it my Nigerian banker needs a North American bank account to invest his money into so he can get on board as well.
May 25 2011 2:50AM
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fujarome
Posts: 8630 - Karma: 1,561
good stuff. I think we should diversify too. You live in Canada, and I live in the US, thus we can start taking advantage of your cheap medicines. Full profit. Give it 6 weeks and we'll be top of the illicit business world.


[I'm gonna go ahead and slap a disclaimer on here, citing the fact that we are not in fact actually smuggling medicine across the border, or planning a scam.]
May 25 2011 2:54AM
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CassiusClay
Posts: 1757 - Karma: 2
Put me in the game coach. I'm currently in Germany and will help you expand abroad, I don't want Madoffs returns, but i'd like something inbetween, you can take his returns and the jail time. We'll start with Merck since they're easiest to pick on, them Pfizer, and GlaxoSmithKline for their prescriptions.
May 25 2011 3:08AM
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JKill
Posts: 626 - Karma: 67
Well this sucks. I thought I was going to get the insight to guaranteed money not guaranteed breaking even or money ;). But, this reminds me of a clip from SNL skit because you were asking investment advise.
Straight Talk - Stock Market by senatork
May 25 2011 3:22AM
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CassiusClay
Posts: 1757 - Karma: 2
Straight up Goldman, ask their risk management about Abacus 07/08 even though they bailed out of that and threw MBS on their clients.
May 25 2011 3:39AM
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JakeAssBeatClap
Posts: 6673 - Karma: 2,537
RAPE TO THE MAXXX
May 25 2011 3:40AM
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