Member of the Month

KilaTsunami
October, 2024

Online

Welcome to the Newschoolers forums! You may read the forums as a guest, however you must be a registered member to post. Register to become a member today!

Is there a flaw to my logic

profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
I tried wikipedia because I'm sure someone has reasoned this out before but the relevant pages all look like gibberish to me.

So if there are a near infinite number of hypothetically possible realities given by a near infinite number of possible outcomes to a similarly infinite number of possible situations each the result of unique previous outcomes etc., then  the probability of each possible reality is equal irrespective of probability of the contributing outcomes.

So I can say that it's just as likely for me to have born in uganda to a pair of farmers as it would be for me to have been born to two space aliens on mars?

Or does that not make sense.
May 17 2011 5:59PM
0 0
profile picture
cum
Posts: 308 - Karma: 8
well in that case, you're going to be more likely to be born in an area with a higher population. So, as far as we know, there aren't too many space aliens on Mars so you'd be more likely born to farmers in Uganda then aliens.
May 17 2011 6:05PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
No I think that my point was as the number of possible realities is infinitely large then the relative effect of the probability of each situation becomes infinitely small. 
May 17 2011 6:07PM
0 0
profile picture
feihlination
Posts: 8356 - Karma: 1,084
wat?
May 17 2011 6:08PM
0 0
profile picture
NickSki.
Posts: 2009 - Karma: 61
Doesn't make sense. How can you be born to aliens on mars that dint exist? For real though, i guess it would be right, but for that to be true there would have to be parallel universes to us??
May 17 2011 6:10PM
0 0
profile picture
Bar_Down
Posts: 5896 - Karma: 395
jesus christ lay off the dope homie
May 17 2011 6:12PM
0 0
profile picture
cum
Posts: 308 - Karma: 8
that doesn't make sense to me for situtations like being born to aliens but i don't know, you could be right
May 17 2011 6:12PM
0 0
profile picture
I_Am_Mod
Posts: 13214 - Karma: 3,753
i think that you shouldn't just ignore "chances" for things to happen, it's not because you have "near" infinite possibilities that every possibility is just as likely to happen ...

and i think your example is rather crude because what is "you" ?
is it still "you" if you were an alien or a son of a poor Ugandan farmer ...

let's take another example...

ways to die, there are near infinite ways to die, but don't you think it is more likely that you die of... let's say cancer, than it is to die of getting hit by a meteorite in the head ?
May 17 2011 6:17PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
Ok I think you've kind of over simplified my argument out of it.

Lets get rid of space aliens for a second and suppose I'm driving down a road, for what ever reason I'm 11 times as likely to take a right turn as a left turn and in order to get to get where I'm going I need to take 3 right turns.

To represent this, lets imagine an 12 sided die being rolled each time a turn comes up, a 12 I turn left anything else I turn right. Now with only three rolls I have a 77% of getting where I'm going [(11/12)^3].

But if to get to where I needed to required 100 consecutive right turns then the probability has gone down to .01% [(11/12)ˆ100].  

In this metaphor where I'm going is represented as 1 possible reality. And the number turns I have to take is the amount of possible different outcomes to every situations that has ever existed in the history of the universe. The number of facets of the die represent the probability of an action. My point is that even as likely as one outcome (or turn if you will), is relative to another (dying by cancer vs meteor strike for example), with an infinite number of "rolls" of the dice the probability of each individual one occurring fades into insignificance.

So we can say that it was infinitely unlikely for me to have been born in this current reality to my parents. We can all say it would have been similarly infinitely unlikely for me to have been born to Ugandan farmers.

So if every event is infinitely unlikely, then every event is infinitely likely.
May 17 2011 7:03PM
0 0
profile picture
SeanTom
Posts: 7936 - Karma: 1,747
this explains everything
May 17 2011 7:05PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
Now the part cum doesn't like, aliens.

For me to have been born to aliens on mars it would require that the planet now known as mars have been flung out with the capability to support life, that life developed at a similar rate  and that the analogues of my parents had decided to have a me after having met each other.

My point is that none of that matters. The possibility me being born in there is infinitely unlikely, same as uganda, same as seattle.
May 17 2011 7:10PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
probability.
May 17 2011 7:11PM
0 0
profile picture
pimpcat
Posts: 858 - Karma: 321
Aliens are asexual
May 17 2011 7:12PM
0 0
profile picture
panojibber
Posts: 3382 - Karma: 216
You can't just use physics and then imply that there are aliens living in mars. Or that its even possible for aliens to be living on mars. Thats the flaw.
May 17 2011 8:14PM
0 0
profile picture
theabortionator
Posts: 51595 - Karma: 161,755
YES
May 17 2011 8:16PM
0 0
profile picture
NickSki.
Posts: 2009 - Karma: 61
But what is considered living? A human could live a different way than a alien. Just because we breath oxygen doesn't mean other beings have to.
May 17 2011 8:17PM
0 0
profile picture
kingcomet32
Posts: 638 - Karma: 13
i think i see what your saying and where youre coming from logically

but heres the problems i see with it:

you are you because of what youve gone through. Where you lived, what treatment you received throughout your childhood, who you've met, whats happened to you, your genetics. So if you were born elsewhere whether on earth or some unknown planet, then you arent really you, youre somebody else because all of those things will have changed

the real question would be is there really a chance of other life forms out there in the universe, in regards to that if there really are infinitely possible combinations of elements and situations out there then of course, probability would say theres some other educated beings out there. If theres not, then theres no chance of anything else being born anywhere else.
as far as that goes scientists say that our world is so ridiculously complex and perfectly fit together that its hard to believe all this has risen from chance. But with so many possible combinations and the idea that everything living evolves to continue doing so, it makes sense that there are some other form of educated beings out there.

but who really knows for sure, too many questions that havent been answered to prove anything. Interesting thoughts though

*inb4 grammar spelling capitalization punctuation -> i dont give a fuck these are my thoughts on a forum, not a thesis, take what you want leave the rest
May 17 2011 8:39PM
0 0
profile picture
MiraFFe
Posts: 177 - Karma: 12
Uhhhhh who cares.....
May 17 2011 8:42PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
Ok I think you're sort of getting what I'm saying. Obviously in this moment there is a 100% chance that I am who I am and a 0% chance that I'm not who I am, be that a space alien or be that a poor Ugandan boy with teh aids.

What I'm saying is that the hypothetical possibilities for potential realities are so numerous that the the probability of each is so insignificant that we can say that each reality is infinitely unlikely and if every reality is infinitely unlikely then we can say they're all infinitely likely.


May 17 2011 8:49PM
0 0
profile picture
Mr.Turtle
Posts: 3690 - Karma: 96
you're so fuckin blazed right now
May 17 2011 8:51PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
I'm not, what I'm saying is that in an alternate reality, in which a different sequence of events had passed starting with the big bang there might be one in which mars was closer to the sun, had more atmosphere what ever. Or one in which everything was the same except we called ourselves aliens instead of humans and the planet mars instead of earth. Incredibly unlikely yes, but then again, so was what happened.
May 17 2011 8:53PM
0 0
profile picture
ImNotARacist
Posts: 5136 - Karma: -1,031
Exactly. Anyone remember the bacteria NASA found with Arsenic in place of something I cant remember.


Watch the video about the 10th dimension. Basically its a theory of infinite universes. Which is what you are talking about.


Everything is probable unless otherwise proven, and even then, we are only one planet out of billions.
May 17 2011 8:57PM
0 0
profile picture
Powderhauser
Posts: 546 - Karma: 38
You should reead the hitchhikers guide to the galaxy.
For example: "The universe is infintie in size with an infinite number of planets. But not all of those planets are populated, so their must only be a finite number of populated planets" and "If we ever figure out what the universe is for and why it is here it will instantly be replaced by something even more confusing".

Not a direct quote but props to Douglas Adams for a great series.

And by my thoughts on the first one finite plus finite must equal infinite
May 17 2011 9:02PM
0 0
profile picture
ImNotARacist
Posts: 5136 - Karma: -1,031
AWWW DUDE THANK YOU SO MUCH!!!!


I wanted to watch the movie about those books with that zoey girl, but I COULD NOT remember that damn name. +K for that my friend.
May 17 2011 9:06PM
0 0
profile picture
kingcomet32
Posts: 638 - Karma: 13
You kinda answered your own question on this one

If everything your saying is true, then i think the miracle that is your life would be just as likely as the miracle of some 'alternate you' living a completely different life

but youre making a lot of assumptions with no proof
nobody has any idea if there are infinite alternate realities let alone any, nobody has any clue how far the universe really expands to or what the chances are of other educated beings

i like to think there are both
based on research and logic i believe the theory of evolution which means that life strives and evolves to continue living, which would mean any other living organism if planted in a different condition would do the same, but would create a completely different breed of being. Butt who knows if thats true thats just my view of it.

heres some things youd probably find interesting to read that kind of support alternate realities, saying that time isnt as linear as we imagine it to be (time slips / hyper perception)

http://www.aquiziam.com/unexplained-phenomenon.html (numbers 8 and 10)
-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_slip (more on #8)

May 17 2011 9:19PM
0 0
profile picture
ESAND
Posts: 1607 - Karma: 744
I'm making no such assumption. We're talking about probabilities of hypothetical realities. I'm not saying that they actually exist along side ours.  This all "what if"
May 17 2011 9:45PM
0 0
profile picture
Spinoza
Posts: 12763 - Karma: 3,846
there is necessarily an infinite number of each possible reality.  you were born in uganda infinite times and born to aliens infinite times.
i think,  


oh and   *jiberish
May 17 2011 9:52PM
0 0
All times are Eastern (-5)