Official Canadian Federal Election Thread - May, 2011

They do call cell phones in polling. And the difference between cell and land lines isn't substantial at all. I had a great link on polling that I lost but it explained why they don't call a lot of cells, because it was proven the difference was nothing. I see what your saying about the age thing, but young people don't vote anyway, even if their was a difference.

So 3 days till election and Jack Layton could be the next PM. Fucking scary if you ask me.....Not saying he would win the most seats but I think its pretty likely the left parties are going to seize power when the conservatives get another minority. And if NDP wins more seats the the liberals, which is a real possibility (SOMEHOW), it could happen. The only good thing would be that he'd fuck it up so much their would probably be another conservative revolution like what happened with Mike Harris having to clean up Bob Rae's mess.

(btw, side note, I know Bob Rae is the "deputy leader" of the liberals. Does this mean that he'll be very likely to be the next leader of the party when Ignatieff has a weak showing Monday? Just asking because Ontario hates Rae and his NDP policies and ruined the province while he was here. So conservatives would love it)

lolwut? When did I say shit about bailing out banks.

And yea EKOS and Nanos are going to have very different numbers because they both have bias. Nanos right, EKOS left. And btw 1.8% margin of error is a stats formula, its not just some guess. It means 95% of the time the population is within 1.8% of what this poll says. It depends on how many people they sample. Anything above like 4% ish I'd consider a low sample size.

Gonna attempt to make a seat projection (almost a guarenteed fail haha)

Con: 155

NDP: 66

Lib: 60

Bloc: 27

Ind/Green: 0

I would normally say maybe 145 for con...but I feel like Bin laden definately helps out the conservatives case for the war and really hurts the NDP (theyre the only party saying to get out). But who knows, might be a bit late for leaders to really make their case about it. We'll see!

Things like that never impact on who people vote for, they impact upon the decision to actually go and vote. I am not sure I WANT a high voter turnout in this election, even though by general principles I'd like to see 100% turnout, simply because the implications of a high turnout are fucking scary. I'm hoping that that same scariness drives a lot of people from the Liberal and Conservative bases to the polls to counteract this NDP surge because I don't care if it's a liberal minority, conservative minority, conservative majority, liberal majority or liberal led coalition, ANYTHING is better than the NDP with real power.

Well, if you believe in socialism or are far left than yea your not going to have a problem with an NDP government. I don't think it would be quittttte as bad federally as provincially. Provincially is been a disaster everywhere. Welfare checks tripling, ballooning deficits, and big tax hikes. I was going to revise my estimate up there to give the NDP a bigger lead and cut a couple from the liberals, but I'd rather just stick with what I picked and hope it turns out haha

Gov't planning/spending never works the way it was intended to. A NDP gov’t would without doubt hurt the Canadian economy which in turn lowers the average standard of living for all Canadians.

Layton is great at making claims about how he would run things, as if he knows the future. The reality is Layton’s claims are as baseless as Obama’s claims were before he took power and drove the American economy into the ground. They are politicians (not fortune tellers) just trying to buy your vote, don’t let them.

they're gonna get a majority, they just announced it on cbc

G$%GT$?%UHGTRFRWCWWERG REWGRfrgnej ewgh eruiowgh erg erwu g894ju4k ehsewjo inweerwg jkegj nrgn erng uherugh huih wer

RAGE^

and lol at duceppe not being elected ahahahahah BLOC fails.