Member of the Month

KilaTsunami
October, 2024

Online

Welcome to the Newschoolers forums! You may read the forums as a guest, however you must be a registered member to post. Register to become a member today!

Official Canadian Federal Election Thread - May, 2011

profile picture
J.D.
Posts: 21362 - Karma: 5,142
So, after the government unveiled the 2011 federal budget today (the most nothing budget in at least a decade), it seems certain, if not official, that there will be an election as a result of the vote on friday. It'll take place on May 2 or May 9. Although I am guessing no one will have much to say yet, things always heat up as the campaign goes along so I thought I would make a thread.

Will there be a conservative majority? Who will you vote for (or who would you vote for if you could)? Will the current issues surrounding the budget form a jumping-off platform for election issues? I'm thinking not - there is simply nothing really in there to campaign on or against, aside from the elimination of the federal deficit by 2015. From where I sit, the issues at stake will develop over the next couple of weeks and we'll be talking about completely different things than now. Aside from contempt of Parliament which is a good election buzzword.
Mar 22 2011 6:24PM
0 0
profile picture
Jonny7
Posts: 3309 - Karma: 76
it doesn't make you cooler
Apr 14 2011 5:20PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
lolwut
Apr 14 2011 5:21PM
0 0
profile picture
Jonny7
Posts: 3309 - Karma: 76
Ignoring QC. What's your goal in doing that?
Apr 14 2011 5:22PM
0 0
profile picture
shibby
Posts: 7088 - Karma: -19
He's just bitter about how irrelevant Ontario has become.
Apr 14 2011 5:28PM
0 0
profile picture
Lord.Quasimoto
Posts: 958 - Karma: 33

Yes, I know all of that. I watched as the PQ almost made it happen in 1995. 1%, it was that close.

I am against the destruction of Canada so that BS makes no difference to me. If you vote BLOC you are voting to break up Canada, "symbolically" or not.

Apr 14 2011 5:45PM
0 0
profile picture
Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
You sound ignorant
Apr 14 2011 6:09PM
0 0
profile picture
Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
Exactly, Canada is like a big family, sure we all have our differences but when the shit hits the fan its better to stay together
Apr 14 2011 6:09PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

LOL Quebec is probably more irrelevant than the arctic.

Apr 14 2011 10:11PM
0 0
profile picture
Jonny7
Posts: 3309 - Karma: 76
troll
Apr 14 2011 10:11PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
I've been posting more legit updates in this thread than anyone. Just on this page its gotten out of hand cause I said "90% of Canada doesn't care what Duceppe has to say" .The Quebeckers got offended cause I guess they thought we wanted to listen to him.
Apr 14 2011 10:17PM
0 0
profile picture
Proletariat.
Posts: 1797 - Karma: 45
A. Quebec makes up approximately 25% of Canada's population

B. You do realize that Quebec makes a huge impact in deciding who gets to be prime minister

C. Im from BC but what happens in Quebec impacts the rest of Canada

D Get educated


Apr 14 2011 11:34PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
I can assure you that Ontario, BC and Atlantic Canada are considered MUCH bigger battle grounds in a federal election by parties and insiders. Not because they're more important or something, but simply because the Bloc has MP's in a lot of ridings who jobs are very safe. Just look at the polling. You look at Ontario and there are way more toss up ridings than Quebec. The GTA is going to be a major turning point between a majority and minority. Simply comes down on conservatives getting the ethnic vote, which I doubt they will because they don't advocate for the "open door" policy some other parties do. I understand you guys think you play a major role but you really don't. Conservatives only have a handful of MP's there. The only way I can see what your saying is if you mean Quebec decides between majority and minority. Because thats definately the case and I would agree with you there. Quebec is the reason we have these elections every year and a half.
Apr 15 2011 12:10AM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

Looks like that Liberal support bump a couple days ago was just a blip in the polls, as I thought it probably was. Nothing really happened before the debate to send them up 4 points over night like that. They're back at around 28% which seems much more realistic considering the way Ignatieff polls.

I'm not completely sold on the "post-debate" polling released this morning. The polling is released every 3 days and takes a day to calculate. I'm interested to see what the snapshop looks like Monday. That should be plenty of time for people to see the debates or highlights, form an opinion, and give the pollsters enough time to capture it. The stuff coming out now is still pretty much the same as it has been for weeks. Tory increase in seats but still a minority. I can't really see any change from what we see on Monday ish unless  A) people really  don't want a minority (Liberals stay home in apathy and Conservatives and Independs vote Tory) and B) Will left leaning voters in the suburbs bail on the NDP and Greens in a sort of last minute desperate "anyone but Harper" wave. Exciting stuff.

Apr 15 2011 11:52AM
0 0
profile picture
Bar_Down
Posts: 5896 - Karma: 395
it all started out because you said he shouldnt be in the english debate, which was an extremely stupid thing to say, and then i pointed out to you how stupid it was. thats it.
Apr 15 2011 1:27PM
0 0
profile picture
geteducated
Posts: 6410 - Karma: 86
whats this about a supposed unsanctioned election booth at guelph university and the accusations from the liberals and media that harper is undemocratic for wanting the votes disqualified?

this is a black and white incident is it not? it seems the media is chalking a conservative mp up to stealing a ballot box.
Apr 15 2011 4:54PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

What happen? I havn't heard anything.

I'm assuming Guelph set up a pool on campus? Who cares, all the uni kids will be back by then anyway.

Apr 15 2011 5:26PM
0 0
profile picture
geteducated
Posts: 6410 - Karma: 86
http://www.thespec.com/news/elections/article/517489--elections-canada-rules-votes-stand-from-u-of-g-special-ballot
Apr 15 2011 5:57PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

ohhh I see. They just voted early I guess.

If the conservatives are smart they should reallllyyyy play this down. Don't want to make it look like they're afraid of the student vote, especially with all the "anti democratic" garbage they hear from the left already.

Apr 15 2011 6:15PM
0 0
profile picture
Cufe.
Posts: 1950 - Karma: 262
chances of me voting conservative: -10%
Apr 15 2011 6:25PM
0 0
profile picture
Obi-Wan-Jenobi
Posts: 951 - Karma: 119
so if i vote bloc theyll leave? wow i just might be down
Apr 15 2011 6:33PM
0 0
profile picture
Download-My-Apps
Posts: 5069 - Karma: 1,017
Its not that simple.... I think every province has to agree on Quebec leaving and it needs to be a majority win for Quebecs referendum
Apr 16 2011 1:42AM
0 0
profile picture
k-rob
Posts: 14217 - Karma: 2,891
i can't vote bloc because i live in alberta.
Apr 16 2011 2:44PM
0 0
profile picture
Download-My-Apps
Posts: 5069 - Karma: 1,017
Well if someone were to run as a Bloc candidate in your riding you could. Maybe next election....
Apr 16 2011 3:02PM
0 0
profile picture
Bar_Down
Posts: 5896 - Karma: 395
lol cant tell if serious...
Apr 16 2011 10:17PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

So along with the new projections, they've also released "ceilings" for every party. This basically shows how many seats each party would gain given their absolute best case senerio from the polling. Ex for the liberal ceiling, they take all the polls that have been the MOST favourable to the liberals, and the LEAST favourable to the conservatives. The best case senerio for the liberals is still a conservative minority. They are starting to get very desperate. Have you guys seen the new tv ad where they say Harper wants to scrap public health care? LOLLLLLOL. Not only is not Federal jurisdiction, but its 100% false. I don't think anyone is buying it. Just makes them look desperate. Here it is for people who havn't seen it.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CP1qHX7qOeg

Apr 18 2011 1:14AM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
So a week after the elections, it looks like nothing has changed in the polling. I didn't see the French debate for obvious reasons but apparently the NDP is rising in Quebec a bit, which I doubt will transfer into any seats -maybe 1. I was watching the news and they had a poll with NDP at 25% nationally. I almost fell off my chair until I found out it was paid for by the Toronto Star LOL. Legitimate polling still has national support within about 1.5% of 18%. I don't think any polls will change before election day. Its just going to come down to which people go out and vote. Liberals weren't polling too too bad in 08 but they got smacked on election day because alot of Lib's stayed home. If it happens again Harper could easily grab a the few more seats he needs for a majority.
Apr 19 2011 1:58PM
0 0
profile picture
Lord.Quasimoto
Posts: 958 - Karma: 33

they should add two things on the ballot:

1) I don't know/care enough to choose

2) None of these candidates represent my interests.

Then make not voting illegal like it is in Australia.

Apr 19 2011 2:25PM
0 0
profile picture
Mike-O
Posts: 14593 - Karma: 1,089
Democracy includes not wanting anyone to represent your interests if there are no suitable candidates. Sounds harsh Duuwn Andeh.
Apr 19 2011 2:29PM
0 0
profile picture
corona
Posts: 12795 - Karma: 32,750
it's not so much scrapping health care as cutting funding to health care. and although health care is provincial, a large portion of their money comes from the Federal government. Which, although may not be presently what the Conservatives say they would do, is certainly something they would like to do. Along with cutting funding/scrapping whatever the hell else they can. such as CBC. You only have to look at their history of selling off Federal organizations to private companies. Petro Canada being a prime example. It was put in place to regulate gas prices as oil companies were (as they are now) gouging consumers. Essentially extortion. Then Mulroney's government gets in and they sell it off, along with numerous other assets. It seems to be a goal of theirs, to take away as much regulatory power as they can from the government.
Apr 19 2011 2:37PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
They already said they're committed to increasing health care spending by 6% a year. Liberals always call conservatives and gun owners paranoid, but this "secret Harper agenda" thing is out of control.
Apr 19 2011 4:03PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
Ignatieff essentially just said he'll form a coalition if Harper hets a minority, saying its legitimate and "we will form government". Conservatives are going to pounce on that. I wouldn't really care about a liberal majority but a Liberal/NDP/Bloc majority scares me. I predict Harper get a bump in the polls from this or the Liberals stay home on election day again.
Apr 19 2011 5:45PM
0 0
profile picture
Download-My-Apps
Posts: 5069 - Karma: 1,017
Ha not serious that it would happen, but it is technically possible
Apr 20 2011 8:00PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
There's been a decent sized NDP surge in the polls recently. The 4 newest polls have the NDP and Liberals statistically tied nationally. We'll see how it plays out. Conservatives still have a safe double digit lead.
Apr 22 2011 7:59PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
Voted. Weird that the advanced polling is on Good Friday and Easter Sunday.
Apr 24 2011 3:19PM
0 0
profile picture
corona
Posts: 12795 - Karma: 32,750
advanced polls are set by regulation a certain number of days before the election or something like that. So it doesn't matter what day it is, it can't be changed. Something like that anyways.
Apr 24 2011 3:34PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16

ohhh. Makes sense then.

On a seperate note I swear I saw Ignatieff and layton wearing red and orange du rags today haha I'll post a pic if I find one

Apr 24 2011 11:35PM
0 0
profile picture
Bar_Down
Posts: 5896 - Karma: 395
ya they were, i saw it on tv after the hockey game. they were around a bunch of indian ppl wearing read turbans and shit so i guess thats why
Apr 24 2011 11:45PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
hahaha I love when politicians pander for votes like that. Soo good.
Apr 25 2011 12:01AM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
4 days till election. This NDP surge is wild.....
Apr 28 2011 7:29PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
 For those who don't know the NDP is up around 30% which is insane.... It's came mostly from Quebec but at the expense of both parties. Conservatives are down closer to 36% and Liberals down to 22% (fail). I dunno if it will hold but if NDP gets more seats than the liberals I'm going to lulz
Apr 28 2011 7:57PM
0 0
profile picture
geteducated
Posts: 6410 - Karma: 86
people that aren't hardcore ndp get cold feet on election day. i wouldn't put much faith in the polling numbers.
Apr 28 2011 8:16PM
0 0
profile picture
Trollolo
Posts: 793 - Karma: 16
thats what I'm thinking but I dunno. These numbers are crazy.
Apr 28 2011 8:21PM
0 0
profile picture
corona
Posts: 12795 - Karma: 32,750
i honestly wouldn't trust polls at all. Think of this, how are polls done? through land lines. who has land lines? practically no one under 25, hardly anyone under 30. and that demographic is actually pretty substantial. Then you ask students who they'll vote for. Well from what I've seen, I'm just going to throw a figure that 3/4 of students and young people are left wing and the opinions of older generations (who are the ones getting polled) don't represent ours. So the polls are really going to be way off.
Apr 29 2011 11:18AM
0 0
profile picture
geteducated
Posts: 6410 - Karma: 86
its more like is there a proportionate amount of area codes that occur in urban vs rural areas being phoned. where city centres are typically more left leaning while rural right leaning. if you run a telephoning polling campaign with only 416 numbers you're going to get a very different result as compared to mixing it with 416 numbers and that of the area codes for used beyond the GTA.

and yes i suppose your theory works as well, although i don't see the correlation to land phones and age since we are seeing a surge in the ndp figures. since it is land lines being called (im assuming) and you're stating that young people are left leaning and that they don't have land lines, then it is difficult to explain the surge in numbers. unless you are asserting that the ndp has more support then it actually does. otherwise your logic doesn't make sense.

Apr 29 2011 11:28AM
0 0
profile picture
corona
Posts: 12795 - Karma: 32,750
your attributing their surge to just young people. and that young people obviously vote NDP. Well maybe, just possibly, the surge is occurring in older people. The people who are getting polled. And your "rural is more right wing" is completely false. Look at real rural areas such as northern ontario. Almost exclusively NDP. Rural areas in Quebec, all bloc. Although according to new figures, all NDP now. Newfoundland, NWT, Yukon, all left wing and all primarily rural. It's really alberta (obviously) and saskatchewan (which has traditionally been NDP). And southern ontario "rural". but if you look at the percentages they're almost all extremely close with liberal.
Apr 29 2011 11:40AM
0 0
profile picture
corona
Posts: 12795 - Karma: 32,750
and reason why rural tends to be more NDP is because of the social programs they push that keep them alive.
Apr 29 2011 11:41AM
0 0
profile picture
Scrambles
Posts: 2270 - Karma: 63
lol ok
Apr 29 2011 11:43AM
0 0
profile picture
corona
Posts: 12795 - Karma: 32,750
getoutofhere.jpg
Apr 29 2011 11:46AM
0 0
profile picture
geteducated
Posts: 6410 - Karma: 86
so then what you are saying is that the ndp numbers are higher than what they currently represent in the polls?


and while by square kilometers, ndp dominates the north you are failing to acknowledge the fact that there are less seats in the north. but in the end we all know this doesn't matter, its seats that matter.

conservatives have more seats in the rural areas of ontario. my point that rural ontario is more conservative still stands.


51 seats comprised of mainly rural areas versus the 17 seats of ndp sprinkled throughout rural ontario where the riding boundaries are so large due to the little population.

nwt, all ndp, only 5600 people voted for them. 1 seat makes up the whole nwt. 1 SEAT.

yukon, is liberal. ALL 1 SEAT. ndp came in DEAD LAST.

newfoundland, all liberal save for one st.johns seat. only 7 SEATS for all of NFLD

the point is NDP has favor in areas that DON"T MATTER when it comes down to becoming the governing party.

before continuing this argument that you don't even have a leg to stand on i suggest you look at the 2008 election map on the cbc website.


Apr 29 2011 11:57AM
0 0
profile picture
Blurst
Posts: 13577 - Karma: 10,169
Except the Toronto area is one of the historically strongest places for the NDP.
Apr 29 2011 11:57AM
0 0
All times are Eastern (-5)