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OFFICIAL NEW ENGLAND WINTER 10/11 STORM THREAD

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gnartogue
Posts: 1005 - Karma: 417
I was thinking instead of making a new thread every time a new storm rolls around why not just but all the storm hype this winter into one big thread? so post your predictions, links, models, etc. here
Dec 18 2010 10:30PM
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J-Evs
Posts: 6387 - Karma: 1,615
fuck the hype
Jan 26 2011 9:42PM
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.frenchy
Posts: 18221 - Karma: 12,310

Still 4-8 or 5-10 range for north-central CT.

I guess we'll have to see tomarrow morning?

Jan 26 2011 10:28PM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Definitely did not flop. A flop would mean that it did not storm anywhere. This storm dropped some nasty, heavy snowfalls over Southern New England. The moisture cutoff was insanely sharp though and this meant that you either got lit up, or you go nothing.

Looks like a quiet stretch with some elevation driven snow showers the next few days before another arctic airmass for early next week. Nothing big on the immediate horizon.
Jan 27 2011 10:21AM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Looking like another potential storm for Wednesday. Right now it looks to be South, again.

I am going to scream if Southern New England gets throttled again while Northern New England sees little.
Jan 28 2011 8:22AM
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Jamerson
Posts: 346 - Karma: 10
wtf man i have not seen a fuckin flake for a week!!! bull shit
Jan 28 2011 8:42AM
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.frenchy
Posts: 18221 - Karma: 12,310
There is TOO MUCH snow in my yard.. But I'll take it ;)
Jan 28 2011 10:12AM
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J-Evs
Posts: 6387 - Karma: 1,615
this is the most snow in years at my house.

urban is almost not as cool because every rail is soo piled in snow and takes a shitload of time to dig out
Jan 29 2011 11:04PM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Tuesday night - Wednesday is looking very strong as of now. Very good, consistent runs. Looking at a longer duration monster that may be the biggest of the winter so far.
Jan 29 2011 11:44PM
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Ifeinforsnow
Posts: 1394 - Karma: 37
we shall see
Jan 29 2011 11:48PM
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J-Evs
Posts: 6387 - Karma: 1,615
yes please!
Jan 29 2011 11:52PM
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.frenchy
Posts: 18221 - Karma: 12,310
If CT gets one more big dump, then it'll be the snowiest winter EVER in the 860. DAMN
Jan 30 2011 12:04AM
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JStrathern
Posts: 8747 - Karma: 1,536
Yesssss I hope this is true.
Jan 30 2011 12:34AM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
From Burlington National Weather Service:

"SRN STREAM ORIGIN OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS AMPLE GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...WITH QG AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOCUSED ACROSS OUR SRN FORECAST AREA. PROSPECT EXISTS FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA...AND 6-12+ ACROSS THE SRN HALF. RAW 00Z GFS QPF AROUND 1.4" FOR RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTY SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS PUSHING 12-18" ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SLEET TO CUT THAT DOWN SOMEWHAT. KVSF SOUNDING PROFILE RIGHT AT 0C 800-750MB FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS MAX QPF SHIFTED FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT AREA WIDE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL DAY WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT."

Keep in mind that those projections are blanket statements that do not take into account topography and elevation factors...

Wednesday and Thursday in VT are going to be good.
Jan 30 2011 12:22PM
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VasilevSKI
Posts: 195 - Karma: 18
What parts of VT? Just Rutland & Windsor areas?
Jan 30 2011 3:30PM
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*Dos*Planker*
Posts: 2983 - Karma: 168
what about southwestern nh?
Jan 30 2011 5:14PM
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Charlie_Kelly
Posts: 11954 - Karma: 12,296
gfs is showing a shitshow for us.
Jan 30 2011 6:14PM
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Jamerson
Posts: 346 - Karma: 10
well it is about fucking time keep us posted! vermont has not got shit this year
Jan 30 2011 7:15PM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
All of VT is going to get in on the action with this. HEAVIEST focus is predicted to be Central VT at this point in time, but everyone will be seeing some nice snowfall out of this with the way things are currently lining up.

Confidence is high on it, so expect to see Winter Storm Watches up sometime tomorrow. There will be some moderate snows Tuesday during the day associated with a warm front out ahead of the storm. May see 3-6" with higher at elevation, from this front before the main event. I've heard a lot of talk that even 20-30"+ is not out of the realm of possibility.

Keep tuned.
Jan 30 2011 7:27PM
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*Dos*Planker*
Posts: 2983 - Karma: 168
us being?
Jan 30 2011 9:57PM
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Charlie_Kelly
Posts: 11954 - Karma: 12,296
the seacoast COULD be looking at some mixing towards the end of the day Wednesday but everywhere else will be almost all snow.
Jan 31 2011 7:43AM
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JStrathern
Posts: 8747 - Karma: 1,536
I have not heard that, I've heard the mixing is quite a bit south of us
Jan 31 2011 8:46AM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Click for larger image

Yes please...
Jan 31 2011 10:40AM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Click for larger image

Beautiful site. ADKs, Greens, Whites and Maine are going to get done up right.
Jan 31 2011 11:05AM
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*Dos*Planker*
Posts: 2983 - Karma: 168
i <3 you
Jan 31 2011 11:54AM
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cwillygood
Posts: 6831 - Karma: 1,829
this is great snow like everrry week
Jan 31 2011 2:47PM
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Charlie_Kelly
Posts: 11954 - Karma: 12,296
THIS STORM IS GONNA BE EPIC! and Joe, sorry bud but there is gonna be mixing says multiple sources. We still could see more that 20 inches and the mixing is only gonna be sleet so its all good.
Jan 31 2011 2:59PM
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JStrathern
Posts: 8747 - Karma: 1,536
Nope mixing is south of Boston
Jan 31 2011 2:59PM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Cats might see some mixing due to the heavy warm air advection and a heavy denser snowfall. Southern VT should stay all snow. Northern VT will definitely stay all snow with less overall liquid equivalent but better fluff factor due to colder temperatures.

With a nice base in place, this storm is going to be the one of the season. Not to mention that we will see a few bonus inches tomorrow from the warm front racing out in front of the storm.

Hope you guys can get after it like I know I will be!
Jan 31 2011 3:14PM
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.cam.
Posts: 1852 - Karma: 48
northern New Hampshire is supposed to get snow everyday for the next 9 days. Booyah
Jan 31 2011 4:56PM
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Dirty_Griddle
Posts: 456 - Karma: 79
i think were going into an ice age
Jan 31 2011 5:07PM
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*Dos*Planker*
Posts: 2983 - Karma: 168
i know isnt it great
Jan 31 2011 5:34PM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
NOAA is calling 15-30" for Southern VT by Thursday AM.

Oh.

My.

God.

Yes.
Jan 31 2011 5:36PM
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cwillygood
Posts: 6831 - Karma: 1,829
haha o yeah
Jan 31 2011 5:55PM
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.frenchy
Posts: 18221 - Karma: 12,310

And 10-14 for northern CT, with 1/4in. of ice.

My house is already snowed in, i cant imagine another foot+

Jan 31 2011 5:55PM
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Bepo
Posts: 8195 - Karma: 17
No class Wed/Thurs, FUCK YES. AND I just got my GoPro in the mail. Holy shit I am pumped, lets just hope that its nice and fluffy
Jan 31 2011 6:29PM
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Dirty_Griddle
Posts: 456 - Karma: 79
any thoughts about the wind, will it prevent summit access at places?
Jan 31 2011 7:49PM
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Jamerson
Posts: 346 - Karma: 10
yes yes yes this is going to be sick.
Jan 31 2011 8:14PM
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.squirrely.
Posts: 7563 - Karma: 7,540
we might be looking at 3 straight snow days.  and 18 to 24inches in central mass.  yayayayaya!!!!
Jan 31 2011 9:04PM
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Ski_Alot
Posts: 5884 - Karma: 3,501
16 inches and no ice for maine... i think so
Jan 31 2011 9:17PM
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steezeball478
Posts: 437 - Karma: 68
1 to 2 feet for albany, this storm better live up to the hype
Jan 31 2011 9:51PM
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cwillygood
Posts: 6831 - Karma: 1,829
18 to 24 inches and no school on my b day hopefully!!!! so ill!
Jan 31 2011 10:18PM
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*Dos*Planker*
Posts: 2983 - Karma: 168
will i have school in southern nh tomorrow?
Jan 31 2011 10:24PM
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Charlie_Kelly
Posts: 11954 - Karma: 12,296
yes. You will most likely have an early release, def snowday on wed. and possible 2 hour delay on thursday. Im predicted this for seacoast NH and I haven't been wrong yet.
Jan 31 2011 10:30PM
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JStrathern
Posts: 8747 - Karma: 1,536
Im in So NH too and Im assuming theres school tomorrow (3-6in) but not Wedneday (14-20in)
Jan 31 2011 10:31PM
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*Dos*Planker*
Posts: 2983 - Karma: 168
then lets hope you are wrong this time and we get 3 strait snow days

Jan 31 2011 10:36PM
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J-Evs
Posts: 6387 - Karma: 1,615
schools already dismissed early tomorrow for me in western ma
Jan 31 2011 10:37PM
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.squirrely.
Posts: 7563 - Karma: 7,540
early dismissal today at 11:55!
Feb 1 2011 6:53AM
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gnartogue
Posts: 1005 - Karma: 417
Click for larger image
Feb 1 2011 7:18AM
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.frenchy
Posts: 18221 - Karma: 12,310
They say 8-14 for me in NW CT now!! Dumping pretty good now, where do I put all this snow?!
Feb 1 2011 9:26AM
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SkierX
Posts: 16253 - Karma: 538
Not to get ahead of ourselves as we are in the midst of a VERY strong storm, but always gotta have the eye on the horizon!

"LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 231 AM EST TUESDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN TRANQUIL WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 500MB FLOW PATTERN IS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM NW FLOW TO SW FLOW AS WE MOVE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MERIDIONAL UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE OHIO/TN RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS STRONG UPR WAVE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT QPF TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND FOR MOST OF THE NWP GUIDANCE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE SUBSEQUENT LOW TRACK LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW THE FURTHEST WEST...WITH A LOW TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WHICH WOULD YIELD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS NOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WITH SFC LOW PASSING NEAR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AROUND 00Z SUNDAY AND THERMAL PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS CLOSE TO THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK AT 06Z SUNDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT OUR AREA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME POPS CLOSE TO 60 PERCENT FOR S-CENTRAL VT LATE SATURDAY AND 40-50 PERCENT
ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SLEET FOR ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING THE ECMWF SOLN IN MIND AND THE OVERALL WRN TREND NOTED IN THE 00Z NWP GUIDANCE SUITE RAISED TEMPS A BIT ABOVE MEX-MOS WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING SATURDAY. UPR FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SOMEWHAT ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUN/MON"
-Burlington NWS
Feb 1 2011 9:52AM
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