Here is the powder alert I got from Larry Schick. From the powder alerts I've recieved in the past two years he has almost always been on and so getting this email is getting me stoked, should be a great season!
SUMMER -- Powder Alert for 2010-2011 season.
The snow will be dumping in the Cascades this upcoming winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is tracking equatorial sea surface temperatures, wind and pressure patterns. Last winter’s occasionally problematic El Nino is dead and gone. Current computer projections for the upcoming winter indicate a La Nina is developing. A La Nina pattern supports above normal snowfall for the Cascades. NOAA has issued a “La Nina Advisory” in effect for next winter, which means a La Nina is developing in the months to come.
Check ENSO El Nino/La Nina Advisory (click PDF English version or HTML or Word)
Updated every month.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
La Nina is the best long term seasonal forecast indicator for fantastic snow in the Cascades. It’s not perfect and not a guarantee. But, in my experience, it’s the only good long range forecast for above normal snow in the Cascades which is reliable for the Pacific Northwest. All La Nina’s are a bit different, but their hallmark is an above normal Cascade snowpack. A strong La Nina is as close as you’ll get to a long range seasonal forecast guarantee of above normal snow in the Cascades. It means cool and wet for the lowlands.
This pattern doesn’t necessarily favor (or disfavor) an early start to the ski season. However, the Climate Prediction Center begins an above normal precipitation trend for the NW by October, but doesn’t kick in a complementary below normal temperature trend until December. By December, the above normal precipitation and below normal temperate pattern sticks with us through the entire winter – and that means quality snow dumpage in the Cascades!
I would hope for a typical start to the season, near Thanksgiving. An important pattern I tend to see with La Nina is; one or more very consistent snow patterns will set up and continue for weeks at a time. This is called a zonal or westerly flow, with multiple storms embedded in the flow. It’s a conveyor belt of sorts, to deliver the goods (epic pow) to the Cascades. The jet stream is aimed right at us, loaded with mountains of snow for almost nonstop snowfall pattern during these surges.
With a new gondola going in at Crystal, new lifts at White Pass and the Summit – this is the season to keep your eye pealed for early season discounts on clothing, equipment, and lift passes. This is also the season to stay close to home, as this La Nina mountain snow pattern mainly favors the Pacific NW.
More to come in September and October…
Have a great summer and stay in shape.
Larry Schick
Grand Pubah of Powder
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