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Permanence of North American Summer Camps

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Magnetic
Posts: 845 - Karma: 229
So with nearly 99% of all glaciers on earth receding and Horstman (On Whister) and
Palmer (snowfield on mount hood) being no exception how much longer do you think the summer ski and snoboard camps based on these glaciers will be in operation. I was at camp of champs last summer session d and i have to say the glacier was in terrible shape and i think it would have been even worse this year had they not had a record snowfall. Also Ken Achenbach (camp of champs director) mentioned how he may lose his job in 5 years time due to the rate the glacier is receding.  
Aug 29 2010 12:43AM
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Ben.
Posts: 21463 - Karma: 683
id say another 5-10 years tops. i hiked in glacier national park this summer and grenel glacier is basically not a glacier any more. compared to pictures i saw of it 20 years ago its miniscule.


inb4 global warming/climate change is a myth.
Aug 29 2010 12:44AM
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Magnetic
Posts: 845 - Karma: 229
Yeah i was at glacier national park 2 years ago and i remember our guide telling us how they have lost something like 70% of all there glaciers, in the past 80 years.
Aug 29 2010 12:47AM
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WikiWiki
Posts: 5584 - Karma: 426
while the glacier may remain for an extended period of time I think the camps will be forced to shut down due to their use of snow- when they build features it effectively stirs up the snow- removing the years of fern buildup and causing it to melt- as well as the increased traffic they really do hurt the glaciers- which in the past was no big deal but now with the increase in glaciers receding rates I would have to say that while the glaciers may remain- I think the National Park Service and Intrawest may think different

It would be interesting to look at the rates of glacial decline in a camp area compared to an equivalent section of glacier-
Aug 29 2010 12:54AM
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ashamedkrew
Posts: 1194 - Karma: 424
i've never really thought about that before but thats kinda a scary thought. newschool skiing without summer camps would be like tom wallisch without a tall tee
Aug 29 2010 1:46AM
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willy_baller
Posts: 1622 - Karma: 693
windells may have to move to raineer....
Aug 29 2010 1:55AM
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blatt
Posts: 5584 - Karma: 3,097
If im correct, there was a large chunk of the palmer glacier which melted. It's now a river that runs almost all the way up hood all the way down to the same altitude as government camp.

I think that camps will have about 2 more decades. progressively having less and less sessions.
Aug 29 2010 2:33AM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
I think 5-10 years at current rates of usage.

However, there are innovative solutions that I think could be used to increase that summer to 10-15. European resorts have been experimenting with wrapping their glaciers and snowfields in insulating "blankets" that reflect sunlight and are very effective (up to 80%). If some of these solutions were implemented on Horstman and Palmer within a year or two, we could see bigger parks with more snow now (for about 5-7 years, gradually depleting), and parks about 50% of the size they are now within 15 years. That's my prediction.
Aug 29 2010 3:13AM
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saxon
Posts: 1159 - Karma: 551
this is the most downer of a thread ever.

true, and reasonable, but sad.
Aug 29 2010 3:44AM
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Magnetic
Posts: 845 - Karma: 229
I have heard about this the only thing there is the cost of the "wrapping" material , i also think that in the case of horstman glacier in particular whistler could extend there systems to make snow on top of the glacier, which i think could add years to the operation time and guarantee that every summer is a "good" snow one. 
Aug 29 2010 10:01AM
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R.Fahey
Posts: 8602 - Karma: 539
The annual snowfall also has a huge thing to do with it. Whistler had an epic year as far as snowfall, and the glacier looked pretty solid, throughout all of the sessions. I went like 7 years ago, in late July and it was terrible. It looked worse than it did in any of the camp videos this year.

If global warming starts killing the snowfall in those areas, then it would be an even bigger problem.... but if the glacier keeps receding, but they keep getting 600 inch snowfall winters, it will be ok I think.
Aug 29 2010 11:44AM
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broto
Posts: 9039 - Karma: 25,662
this thread makes me want to cry.
Aug 29 2010 2:01PM
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kingskier
Posts: 1045 - Karma: 11
same :(
Aug 29 2010 3:38PM
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PC.
Posts: 1105 - Karma: 18
yeah, i just moved to hood :(

what a debbie downer.
Aug 29 2010 5:06PM
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nickyp
Posts: 5673 - Karma: 215
There will always be demand for summer skiing, from impatient kids, and parents who want their kids out of the way.

My guess is if the Mt. Hood or Whistler glaciers melt, then they'll move operations to NZ or S.America
Aug 29 2010 5:24PM
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broto
Posts: 9039 - Karma: 25,662
why couldn't we just have taken care of our planet.
Aug 29 2010 5:27PM
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Sklar
Posts: 8864 - Karma: 31,612
or mount hood will explode!!

Click for larger image
it is a volcano





but really, the NZ/SA thing sounds quite possible
Aug 29 2010 5:33PM
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Blurst
Posts: 13577 - Karma: 10,169
When I was at hood last summer in late July there was barely any snow and I was not stoked to say the least.
Aug 29 2010 5:37PM
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Melvs
Posts: 15174 - Karma: 480
http://www.livingrivers.org/pdfs/LRlibrary/ClimateDocs/MoteHamletClarkLettenmaier.pdf

Snowpacks (annual snowfall) in the west are declining. Definitely going to have an impact within a decade or two.
Aug 29 2010 5:51PM
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ponyboy
Posts: 403 - Karma: 12

Most of what I just read is complete BS, and is based entirely on opinion. Show me data that conclusively shows that Palmer is melting. Palmer is not even a glacier, it's a seasonal snowfeild and comes and goes depending on the previous winters snowfall, and the average temps all summer. It was cold this summer and there is more snow up there than usual, and that is after a marginal snow year.

I don't think anyone should say that summer riding is in danger, at least not around Mt Hood. After all we are still riding park up here right now. That's still 10 full months of lift serviced park riding, Pretty good I'd say.

Aug 29 2010 9:26PM
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Literature
Posts: 13673 - Karma: 3,085
While the overall trend is certainly a decline, snowfall mitigates it to an extent. Some glaciers, like Sperry Glacier in Glacier National Park, have either been static or grown in the past few years.

I'm baffled that people think summer camps are the only form of summer skiing. You don't need to pay thousands of dollars to get your shred on in August.
Aug 29 2010 11:51PM
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Pudge
Posts: 3718 - Karma: 3,117
no bro planet's natural cooling and heating cycle of about 8,000 to 10,000 years. so i like ot think of it as its not my fault :D
Aug 30 2010 12:39AM
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Melvs
Posts: 15174 - Karma: 480
the post I made, right above yours... go ahead, read it. Here's part of the conclusion from it:

SWE = Snow Water Equivalent or how much water there is in the snowpack... it's what is important to most of the people studying this because of it's impacts on the water supply of many areas of the world. You can basically think of it as more SWE = more snow, less SWE = less snow.

CONCLUSION:
Widespread declines in springtime SWE have occurred in much of the North American West over the period 1925–2000, especially since midcentury. While nonclimatic factors like growth of forest canopy might be partly responsible, several factors argue for a predominantly climatic role: the consistency of spatial patterns with climatic trends, the elevational dependence of trends, and, most important, the broad agreement with the VIC simulation.

...

We are left, then, with the most important question: Are these trends in SWE an indication of future directions? The increases in temperature over the West are consistent with rising greenhouse gases, and will almost certainly continue (Cubasch et al. 2001). Estimates of future warming rates for the West are in the range of 2°–5°C over the next century, whereas projected changes in precipitation are inconsistent as to sign and the average changes are near zero (Cubasch et al. 2001). It is therefore likely that the losses in snowpack observed to date will continue and even accelerate (Hamlet and Lettenmaier 1999a; Payne et al. 2004), with faster losses in milder climates like the Cascades and the slowest losses in the high peaks of the northern Rockies and southern Sierra. Indeed, the agreement in many details between observed changes in SWE and simulated future changes is striking and leads us to answer the question at the beginning of this paragraph in the affirmative. It is becoming ever clearer that these projected declines in SWE, which are already well underway, will have profound consequences for water use in a region already contending with the clash between rising demands and increasing allocations of water for endangered fish and wildlife.


TL;DR There is scientific proof of a declining snowpack in Western North America and it's pretty damn well accepted among scientists who specialize in this area.
Aug 30 2010 12:42AM
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KLovelace
Posts: 2118 - Karma: 289
palmer WAS a glacier.. and now it is a snowfield.
Aug 30 2010 1:11AM
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[Adam]
Posts: 1937 - Karma: 256
:(
Aug 30 2010 1:14AM
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tride
Posts: 1038 - Karma: 26
Obviously you haven't been spending the last 15 or so years up at a glacier summer ski scene.

Horstman Glacier on Blackcomb, where the camps operate, is straight up VANISHING at a ridiculous rate. Even the showcase t-bar line is now just snow sitting directly on rocks, there used to be glacier coverage extending for hundreds of feet past that point.

They've been lucky with a few good winters and this year they had a very cold spring, so the snow has lasted for camps, but without the glacier underneath to insulate it, they are not going to make it much longer.
Aug 30 2010 6:38AM
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.peter
Posts: 1222 - Karma: 63
the glaciers have been shrinking for a very long time and may continue to... or not it really depends.
Aug 30 2010 9:22AM
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broto
Posts: 9039 - Karma: 25,662
yes but it it warming up at an alarming rate in only about 100 years. thats almost 100x faster than normal.
Aug 30 2010 11:10AM
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snomaster
Posts: 3344 - Karma: 5,748
it's good that so many people are aware that we can't take everything for granted. enjoy what we've got with respect.
Aug 30 2010 11:22AM
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ponyboy
Posts: 403 - Karma: 12

No, I havn't been on a glacier the past 15 years I've been on Mt Hood, which is not a glacier, that was my point.  Mt hood's snowpack and weather patterns and Whistler' glacier pack in my opinion are not related. Although Mt hoods glaciers are receding in general the Palmer snowfield's snowpack is more based on yearly accumulation and mean summer temps. Other factors that maybe don't effect Whist`ler or the rest of the glaciers on Mt Hood are wind patters, snow/water content and the ski areas ability to agressively snow farm the snowfield and freestyle camp areas.

Anyway I'm just saying that one year palmer may be completely melted out like many archived pictures I have seen from the early 1900's or could be completely bomber like it is right now. It has to do more with seasonal conditions than glacier retreat.

Aug 30 2010 12:30PM
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PJS.
Posts: 11943 - Karma: 895
no one was saying that hoods weather affected whistler...
Aug 30 2010 12:43PM
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nickyp
Posts: 5673 - Karma: 215
We can kid ourselves all we want, but I've skied Euro glaciers for the last few years, and they are definitely getting smaller.

You can throw around all your hypotheses and Wikipedia-derived knowledge as much as you want, but seeing is believing, and you only have to visit the glaciers over a period of years to see they are in recession
Aug 30 2010 2:26PM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
The problem is that you are looking at the year-to-year trend and season-to-season trend and not the multiple-year trend. It may seem that the size of Palmer Glacier/Snowfield (there are both on Mt. Hood. The glacier is higher in elevation than the snowfield.) is across the board depending on the snow amount of the preceding year. That is, to an extent, true. However, a much more important element when looking at the rate of decline of these glaciers/snowfields is the multiple-year trend. Trends over twenty-five, fifty years.

Horstman Glacier is half the size that it was 150 years ago (http://espn.go.com/action/snowboarding/blog/_/post/5440914). Throughout that decline, the rate of decline has been steadily increasing. That means that the glacier has been losing more and more mass every year.

No information is collected on Palmer. Which is a shame. However, the average summertime temperature in the area around Mt. Hood has risen by 2.0 degrees since 1900 (http://espn.go.com/action/snowboarding/blog/_/post/5440914). We are seeing more and more years where Timberline is unable to reopen after Labor Day Maintenance due to low snow cover.

The fact remains that Timberline should effectively and collaboratively study Palmer Glacier/Snowfield with the USGS, the USFS, and other bodies in order to determine its history, its rate of decline, and its other distinguishing and important information. They need to begin to practice techniques that use the snow conservatively and innovatively (such as snow "blankets"--despite cost, when your operation is at stake, it's worth investigation) in order to preserve Palmer for the future.
Aug 30 2010 9:21PM
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ponyboy
Posts: 403 - Karma: 12

ok I get what you're saying and I appreciate your understanding of glacier activity in general.

Trust me whenI tell you that Palmer does not act like a glacier becuase it is not. We rebuild it every year with snow farming and then by grooming and salting which makes it last longer than it probably should. If it all melts on low snow years it's not a big deal becuase we can rebuild it, unlike a glacier that may rely on a thick ice pack for insulation.

And if temps raised another 2 degrees around mt hood and weather patterns stayed the same it would probably help us more than hurt. Higher temps carry more moisture and allow for heavier more dense snow packs. Many times on Palmer we are unable to catch big cold storms becuase the light snow blows away too easily and does not compact as well. The best storms we get are the heavy wet ones that may actually be rain at the lodge, but it absolutley hammers up top. It's not unusual to catch 10-15 feet during these wet storms.

Either way I think covering Palmer with a blanket would be a little much. I'd rather just ride a couple less weeks a summer and go golfing.

Aug 31 2010 12:10AM
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