If you really want to know the chance of aliens and alien contact..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%27s_equation
And water is essential to life because of the way it is used to break down polymers, oxygen forms 2 covalent bonds, making it the ideal bridge molecule between monomers. When monomers are split, the oxygen goes to one and it gains a hydrogen from water making a hydroxyl group, and the remaining -OH is added to the second monomer, forming two stable, complete monomers. This characteristic could also be seen with a molecule like hydrogen sulfide because sulfur can form 2 covalent bonds, but because of the weight and size of sulfur (not to mention the fact that hydrogen sulfide is toxic), water seems like the best indicator of a planet that could support life.