HYPE HYPE HYPE HYPE HYPE HYPE.
seriously tho im so amped up about this.
and if anyone cares, heres a mini-report i just wrote for my investment group, i would be curious to hear others oppinions tho. THREADJACK
"i dunno where im supposed to put these so im putting it here. Elliot
recommended that i put together a blurb/analysis about whats up with
Apple since ive been rambling on about it in the room while he turns
up the CNBC volume in hopes that ill shut up. Anyways, heres whats
running through my mind.
first off, todays profit call - Apple noted that they saw a better
commodity market than anticipated and were able to leverage fixed
costs with decreased freight and dutys costs. This lead to a higher
than predicted gross profit margin. That being said, new accounting
rules for the December quarter likely contributed to the increase, as
for the first time Apple is accounting for Iphone sales at the time of
sale, rather than over the estimated life (subscription accounting).
It will be interesting to see what AAPL does on Tuesday. Normally the
market would do cartwheels over a call like this (profits of $3.67 per
share, compared to a general consensus prediction of $2.07), however
everyones going nuts after hours trying to account for the changes in
accounting (no pun intended).
However, Ram Select doesnt really care about this. However, I am very
interested in the future.
Now on to the product everyone's going nuts over: the Apple tablet
(iSlate or iPad, according to recent apple domain name purchases).
Straight from the man who released the portable music player that
redefined the entire music industry, the OS that takes more of
Microsoft's market share every day, and the phone that defined the 3G
network, comes the bold statement, "This is the most important thing
I've ever done." This market hype is something that we at Ram Select
must look into. If you haven't heard, the iSlate is supposed to be
released Wednesday. Heres the major things floating through my head:
- Cyclical Market - Apple seems to have a pretty general cycle with a
product. HYPEHYPEHYPE, then product release, then slight market
dissapointment, but still massive sales based on hype and innovation,
then Apple perfection for a second gen product, then complete market
takeover (see iPod, macbook, iPhone for precedent). If we can look
into how the stock price has followed this cylce, we can find the
ideal time to buy into the tablet's cycle.
- Supply Chain - Apple, for obvious reasons, has not released who is
manufacturing what for the tablet. Some say Quanta, some say Foxconn,
some say in house. Displays will likely be LG or Wintek. Battery will
likely be from Dynapack. Intel claims that they are producing chips
for "a bigger version of the iPhone," but most analysts believe the
chips will be produced in-house (for the first time ever), through PA
Semi, a company Apple purchased a while ago. Further down the supply
chain, it would be interesting to see where PA semi gets supplies. AVY
Precision Technology will be producing aluminum cases for the tablet
come February.
- Mobile - Apple is said to be in talks with AT&T and Verizon for
(exclusive?) contracts with this tablet. Likely these contracts would
subsidize the otherwise high cost($800?) with a mobile contract. One
analyst claims he is certain Verizon is taking it. AT&T exploded with
the iphone, need i say more?
- It's rumored that NY times is developing for this thing, along with
Conde Nast, Harper Collins, and EA games. The tablet is likely to
redefine the book, magazine, movie, and portable gaming markets.
They're even going after college textbooks. Apple apparently has put
together an offer to publishers (to compete with ebook pricing from
Amazon) that is developed to help the publishers and in turn help
authors. As a student, I just hope it means a cool, cheap way to get
textbooks. That being said, will this tech kill the Kindle? Probably
not immediately, given far different price points and technologies.
However, we should keep an eye on AMZN, as Apple is known to downright
perfect a technology and completely takeover a market (look at retail
CD sales now that the iPhone is what it is).
If youre genuinely interested, take the time to check out AAPL analyst
reports on investex. Basically everyones saying BUY BUY BUY. That
isn't what i'm saying though.
Right now, AAPL is likely way overbought with all the hype, which will
probably combine with this recent profits call. Personally, I'd like
to look into the product cycle vs stock price and see if we can get in
in time for Apple takeover (of the magazine, book, movie industry--or
the world?).
any commentary is greatly appreciated.
and, if anyone really cares, AAPL is in the portfolios of Steve Mandel
of Lone Pine Capital, Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Capital
Management, LLC, John Griffin of Blue Ridge Capital, Chris Shumway of
Shumway Capital Partners LLC, Lee Ainslie of Maverick Capital, Ken
Heebner of CAPITAL GROWTH MANAGEMENT LP, Daniel Loeb of Third Point,
LLC, Chase Coleman of TIGER GLOBAL MANAGEMENT LLC, Bill Nygren of Oak
Mark Fund, Bruce Kovner of Caxton Associates, Jeremy Grantham of GMO
LLC, John Buckingham of Al Frank Asset Management, Inc., Ron Baron of
Baron Funds, George Soros of Soros Fund Management LLC, Kenneth Fisher
of Fisher Asset Management, LLC, PRIMECAP Management, Bill Frels of
MAIRS & POWER INC, Ruane Cunniff of Ruane & Cunniff & Goldfarb Inc. "
