Well, if you like me were sick and tired of the media praising Obama’s poll numbers as ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ pheonomenon (something I and others discounted factually several times)…well your time has come.
Every major polling company, led by Rasmussen, has shown a plummet in support for Barack Obama over the past two months.
Why the fall? Well, they primarily correlate with the ever weakening job reports coming out. Clearly, Obama promising to keep unemployment below 8%, with unemployment now pushing 10%, dramatically damaged his credibility.
How bad is it? Well, historically, it is shockingly bad. Using the Gallup poll, Obama is now ranked 10th out of the last 12 presidents at the same point in time in their first term. That is pretty bad. To make it more shockingly clear, Obama is now worse in polling numbers than that glorious liberal success story, Jimmy Carter. The Dark blue line is Carter, the lighter blue is Obama:
There is a simple reason for this: the overhyped, unrealistic expectations for Barack Obama have subsided, and reality has set in. The unemployment number hovering around 10% has shaken the base of the American voter. No one in last year’s election talked about 10% unemployment…and here it is. People have lost significant faith in Obama on these issues. He is even or below water on issues such as the economy, foreign affairs, taxes, and immigration.
On top of that, Obama’s promises have fallen well short of reality. He promised to be a budget hawk, and has been anything but. He stated that his stimulus plan was necessary and an emergency plan. Instead, the program has still spent only a small percentage of its funds 6 months later. The result is that the stimulus has not been stimulative in any sense of the word (well, maybe the budget deficit has been stimulated, but that is all). And Obama promised political moderation on the environment and health care…and has given us extreme liberal ideology instead.
Health care may be the final nail in the coffin. It isn’t that Conservatives are winning on the subject…in fact their poll numbers are still relatively low on the subject. No, it is that people are losing faith in Obama and Democrats…and even Obama undertands that much of his presidency depends on health care reform succeeding. 53% of people now oppose Obamacare…not a good omen.
Obama has a lot of time to recover. Bill Clinton had similar numbers in 1993, and won re-election. Only one problem…the interrim could be painful. Remember…Clinton suffered huge losses in the off year 1994 election, that brought Newt Gingrich and the Republican Revolution to power.
UDPATE: Obama tonight is going to say his stimulus saved the economy. Um, what? This almost sounds like, “Mission Accomplished”. Maybe they should hang that banner again, this time over the Unemployment office in Washington D.C..
The House may still vote on their mess of a bill before the August break, according to Steny Hoyer. Dick Durbin says no way in the Senate. Everyone (pro or con…though I have heard very few pro voices recently…) should contact their representative. A phone list of the key players can be found here."