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El Nino 09/10

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bigbuds
Posts: 651 - Karma: 41

http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories/NW_070909WXB-el-nino-snowfall-olympics-TP.24234630.html

What does this mean for where you ski?  How does El nino affect differn't parts of the ski world? Are you going to change anything for the winter? Anybody know how El Nino affects Revelstoke? Any thoughts or comments?

El Nino. Those are two words that I hate the most! 

Jul 9 2009 6:16PM
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dave44
Posts: 11052 - Karma: 113
PNW is sucking dick.
Feb 8 2010 6:18PM
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simon44
Posts: 1183 - Karma: 1,185
im in bc, i ski at grouse and it sucks. theres less snow than there would be in the late spring. and there is only a few jibs but at least they're fun
Feb 9 2010 10:19AM
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doyle.
Posts: 1624 - Karma: 596
ya me too atleast grouse is open
Feb 9 2010 10:22AM
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Deletedtoday
Posts: 4060 - Karma: 398
i was hoping this would be wrong but dang spot on for WA
Feb 9 2010 12:09PM
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BShear66
Posts: 79 - Karma: 20

Just ask the Olympic organizers how they like El Nino...

Feb 9 2010 2:54PM
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andreweckels
Posts: 594 - Karma: -4
damn that map was pretty accurate. cali got that huge dump DC just got pounded and utah is a little below average and washington hasn't seen significant snowfall in a month
Feb 11 2010 12:40AM
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DubChubb
Posts: 122 - Karma: 204
exactly. Mt. Baker is having such a shitty season and all the other close resorts like grouse and cypress aren't in good shape.
Feb 11 2010 12:51AM
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Kayess
Posts: 357 - Karma: 11
they guessed it 100% correct, mid to uppers 50s in January and February wtf??!!
Feb 11 2010 12:56AM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
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NASA forecast from late in January that features a sharp end to El Nino and a La Nina by next winter (2010-11). It's still really early, but very encouraging for the West at least.
Feb 11 2010 1:51AM
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family_vacation
Posts: 6200 - Karma: 7,840
Washington makes me want to cry.
Feb 11 2010 1:55AM
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Dustin.
Posts: 13839 - Karma: 7,704
So what does that mean?  I don't understand what that's a graph of, just temperature predictions?
Feb 11 2010 2:01AM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
El Ninos/La Ninas are measured on a relative point scale. El Ninos mean warmer than average temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Currently the 2010 El Nino is at +1.5 or so. This is a sum/average of the various tropical indices. The important thing is that it means that the equatorial Pacific is much warmer than normal--because this is a strong El Nino.

This graph utilizes models of the same indices to forecast what they might look like in the future. Thus, according to NASA, we may get a La Nina (cooler than normal in the equatorial Pacific) for next year that is as cool as this year's El Nino is warm. In essence, a -1.6 read, on average, which would be a relatively strong La Nina.

Sorry if none of that made sense. Because of my interest in skiing, I've become interested in long-term forecasting. I'm no expert; I most likely botched that entire description. But in essence, that's what you need to know. La Nina for next year? Maybe.
Feb 11 2010 2:17AM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
Scratch that, the current Nino is at about a +2.0. The projected Nina is about a -1.2. The Nino is strong. The Nina is moderate to strong.
Feb 11 2010 2:19AM
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Dustin.
Posts: 13839 - Karma: 7,704
Right, I get that, but my understanding is that warmer Pacific temperatures generally mean stronger Pacific storms. Wouldn't colder temps call for mild weather? I'm obviously no expert in this area.
Feb 11 2010 12:28PM
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hans_aschim
Posts: 1188 - Karma: 11
El Nino in South Africa:
http://magicseaweed.com/South-African-Harvest-Content/2233/

Might as well have fun.
Feb 11 2010 12:46PM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
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It all depends on your location. In an El Nino year, the Pacific jet moves over California, resulting in a good snow year for places like Mammoth, Tahoe, the SoCal resorts, Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, etc. In a La Nina year, there is a strong blocking high pressure ridge over the Northern Pacific. This results in (often) a trough of low pressure for the West Coast. Because the West is on the eastern side of the ridge, they get often supercooled air and a strong, wet storm track. This results in good snow for Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, etc.
Feb 11 2010 3:01PM
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Cincher
Posts: 3403 - Karma: 535
What happens to the central region(Manitoba, North Dakota, Minnesota, etc.) during La Nina?
Feb 11 2010 3:06PM
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DAPSKI
Posts: 414 - Karma: 141
tahoe is not favored by el nino mammoth slightly is and so cal is pritty favored. tahoe on average is not favored by el nino i need to say it again becuase for some reason poeple listen to the marketing efforts of the resorts like retards and dont get true info.
Feb 11 2010 3:11PM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
I believe those regions would be cooler and wetter than normal.

The usual places that would lose in a La Nina would be California and the East Coast. But remember, this is just a forecast and it's very early. Currently some of the models want to have a weak El Nino/ENSO neutral year for 2010-11. Other models want a moderate La Nina. So you never know.
Feb 11 2010 3:16PM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
Actually, Tahoe is generally favored by El Nino. It just depends on the year--it's fairly inconsistent. This year has been completely insane. It's been different from any other year previously--a new analog, if you will. But generally in an El Nino year, Lake Tahoe has a greater chance to get more snow than normal than to get lower snowfall than normal.
Feb 11 2010 3:20PM
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Cincher
Posts: 3403 - Karma: 535
I'm not sure if that means more snow or not for me but last year we got a lot.
Feb 11 2010 4:13PM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
Tahoe isn't favoured by El Nino? Then how the hell do you explain the 10 feet of 20-1 ratio, relatively light snow that I was skiing at Squaw 2 weeks ago...

Not to mention, the 300"+ Miracle March of 2006?

Thats right. We had upwards 300" of snow in the month of March in 2006 at many Tahoe Resorts. Mammoh had about the same amount more or less a few inches or so.
Feb 11 2010 4:52PM
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Avifarer
Posts: 5926 - Karma: 598
banff area has been getting bum fucked as off late. the early season was epic, new snow almost every night.
now it has been really warm for quite a while, hardly any snow. the snow feels like april snow, heavy, sticky espec at louise.

Feb 11 2010 5:00PM
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selkirks
Posts: 1978 - Karma: 59
You're either thinking of March 2005 or March 2007. March 2006 was a weak La Nina year. But March 2005 and March 2007 were both weak El Ninos. FWIW, it could have happened in 2006 too, but 2005/2007 were the El Nino years.
Feb 11 2010 8:12PM
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JesseWest
Posts: 882 - Karma: 27
el nino loves to screw SE AK
Feb 11 2010 8:54PM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
2004-early 2005 and 2006-early 2007 were both el nino events. The 2006-2007 event was a bit stronger than the 04/05 series.

Either way, 1998, and 1982 were the strongest so far... I still remember the news footage from all the flooding northern california had in 1998... so much fuckin rain man.
Feb 12 2010 2:17AM
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neverlookingback
Posts: 198 - Karma: 16
hahahahah you just made my fuckin night K+
Feb 12 2010 3:12AM
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neverlookingback
Posts: 198 - Karma: 16

Feb 12 2010 3:15AM
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Drail
Posts: 14012 - Karma: 10,010
yea, I remember the 04/05 season... worst year I have ever experienced here in BC, all the while hearing about insane storms hitting Tahoe over and over and over... there was a lot of Tahoe in the ski and snowboard videos that year instead of the usual "whistler backcountry".



Tahoe gets more snow than the PNW/BC during El Nino, that I do know.
Feb 12 2010 3:39AM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
If squaw has an end to the season like it did in 2006, we will be looking upwards 700-750" of snowfall total.

Kirkwood? Probably over 800".


Feb 12 2010 4:29AM
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andrew.ski
Posts: 368 - Karma: 69
correct^^ the problem is the el nino is hellllaaa warm and half the time when i go to check tahoeloco.com im dreading a storm cause that could mean rain rather than snow.
Feb 12 2010 5:19AM
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nussc
Posts: 64 - Karma: 116
I found this quite funny :-)
Feb 12 2010 5:23AM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
So far not this year though... the pinapple express isnt going off and we have been getting a stormtrack coming from the direction of northern china rather than the east indies...

This means less precip perhaps, but MUCH better snow. The storm that hit tahoe 3 weeks back and dumped 10 feet had ratios of 20-1 which is quite awesome for both base, and for actually skiing.
Feb 12 2010 7:18PM
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andrew.ski
Posts: 368 - Karma: 69
amen. i oughta listen to the pro. any sales coming up at any mountain soon?
Feb 13 2010 2:46AM
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Funnel
Posts: 7815 - Karma: 1,531
Still glad you moved?

I hope we have an insane March here in CA. That would be really nice. I'm sick of this fucking drought.
Feb 13 2010 3:34AM
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Cincher
Posts: 3403 - Karma: 535
Hell it beats being cursed to live in the prairies like I'm forced to every day. God, any place is better than here.
Feb 15 2010 9:48PM
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bigbuds
Posts: 651 - Karma: 41

 Forgot I made this thread... Revy has been sick. Maybe this will piss off Ullr and start snowing again.

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Feb 15 2010 10:26PM
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Crack.
Posts: 6020 - Karma: 84
haha drought? Here in CNY I haven't even been able to ski my backyard yet which last year I got to do almost everyday.
Feb 15 2010 11:41PM
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