El Nino 09/10

bigbuds · 2009-07-09 18:16:45

http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories/NW_070909WXB-el-nino-snowfall-olympics-TP.24234630.html What does this mean for where you ski? How does El nino affect differn't parts of the ski world? Are you going to change anything for the winter? Anybody know how El Nino affects Revelstoke? Any thoughts or comments? El Nino. Those are two words that I hate the most!

smuggs

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weather forecasts and forecasted weather patterns always have and will continue to mean nothing to me. they have getting todays weather and urrent temperatures down. but any farther than that is a joke.

Jul 22 2009 1:25AM

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Kevski

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Haha if this happens it'll be bad timing for the olympics. I remember that 04-05 season... *Shivers*. That was horrible and if the olympics have to deal with that then Vancouver is gonna be fucked up for a bit I think. The cross country area is already at the bottom of the valley where snow is always wetter. Not that I care about the olympics...

Jul 22 2009 1:38AM

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selkirks

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Dude, it's WAY too early to begin looking at possibile analogs. Way too much can change between now and October/November. The article you quote has quite a few inaccuracies. Right now, and I'm sorry to burst almost everyone's bubble, it looks like the El NiÃ±o will slowly fade and have little to no effect on this winter's weather.

Take a look at this link if you want a detailed look at the winter 2009-10 forecast:
http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?#extremes

Jul 22 2009 1:39AM

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smuggs

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yea we know what to expect SUN,RAIN,SNOW,WIND ,WARM, COLD. beyond that nobody is accurately predicting anything 6 months away.

Jul 22 2009 1:43AM

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selkirks

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I should add that skiers in the West (especially the PNW, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, etc.) have nothing to worry about at this point. The last two winters were exceptional to say the least. At this point it seems reasonable to expect a normal winter in most areas of the west.

Jul 22 2009 2:49AM

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king.of.gnarnia

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Im hella nervous for this year. If washington gets a repeat of the 2005 season Im gana be pissed. Senior year and then a fuckin el nino.

Aug 29 2009 2:09AM

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Frank_Spinatra

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Come on, we have to debate global warming now?? The changes that are starting be made as a result of it are long over due and is just a start to trying to ensure the very survival of the human race. We're destroying our precious resources at a ridiculous rate and soon we'll start killing each other over whats left.

Aug 29 2009 3:01AM

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purplejumpsuit

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El Nino is normally a bad sign for my area... not to stoked. yay PNW.

Aug 29 2009 3:25AM

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Mr.Huck

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All I can say is that we have had more precip this summer than I can remember for a long time. Unless it does a 180, this winter is going to be epic for CO. I just hope CDOT can keep the roads open.

Aug 29 2009 1:16PM

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Thenowhereman42

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It hasn't rained at all the whole summer. Last El nino was pretty epic though for socal.

Aug 29 2009 2:24PM

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lainekras

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i definitely heard its gonna be an el nino season. in utah it means epic snow!

Aug 29 2009 3:25PM

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Relish_man

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oh, shit son! i ski right at the tip of the ''Cold & Snowy region. STOKED!

Aug 29 2009 3:28PM

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Barf.

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Yeah New England!!!

Aug 29 2009 3:36PM

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tinkytwinky

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damn. This year will be a chllenge if that map is right. I wanted to do a ton of urban this year but it looks like the midwest is gonna lack some snow.

Aug 29 2009 3:37PM

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CHARLES.BRONSON

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lets hope its not as bad as the one in 04/05

Aug 29 2009 3:52PM

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Che~

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settle down buddy

Aug 29 2009 3:54PM

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twin-tip-hero

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YAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY FTW

Aug 29 2009 6:00PM

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ALaw

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fuck i dont know if it is good for me i live on the oregon california border at Mt Ashland (fuck yeah) i remember in 07-08 we got completely dumped on the whole year

Aug 29 2009 7:38PM

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Where-am-I

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bring it, i hope it dumps in CO

Aug 29 2009 7:53PM

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bernierosow

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What do you guys know about sun spots? This could prove to be a bigger deal than el nino.

"THE SUNS OUTPUT OF ENERGY OVER A TIME SCALE OF SOME 5 TO 10 YEARS WILL HAVE A DIRECT CORRELATION TO GLOBAL TEMPERATURES AND THUS CAN EFFECT "THE EARTHS WEATHER ON A CLIMATE TIME SCALE".

QUIET SUN: According to NOAA sunspot counts, the longest stretch of spotless suns during the current solar minimum was 52 days in July, August and Sept. of 2008. The current spate of blank suns is putting that record in jeopardy. There have been no sunspots for 49 days and there are none in the offing. Another 3 days of spotlessness and it will tie last years record. The deep solar minimum continues!

Spotless Days:
Current Stretch: 49 days
2009 total: 191 days (79%)
Since 2004: 702 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days

COMMENT:
8-26-09
IF THIS MINIMUM CONTINUES ANOTHER 12 TO 18 MONTHS.....THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE CHATTER
IN THE GLOBAL WARMING VS GLOBAL COOLING ARENA. SOME SCIENTISTS ARE THINKING DALTON MINIMUM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE THAT INDICATES THAT A QUIETER SUN LEADS TO GLOBAL COOLING. HOWEVER, WITH MUCH SPECULATION ABOUT THAT ISSUE, IT MAY JUST BE THAT IF THIS SOLAR MINIMUM CONTINUES LONG ENOUGH, THAT CURRENT STUDIES NOW UNDER WAY MAY REVEAL THE TRUTH ON THE MATTER IN THE COMING YEARS.

READ AN ARTICLE FROM ICECAP.US
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/longer_term_solar_minimum_dalton_or_maunder/

Aug 29 2009 8:20PM

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selkirks

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^No. Sunspots have very little impact on the weather. I hear a lot of astrometeorologists claiming they make a difference, but really their impact is slim to none.

And the El NiÃ±o is expected to stay very weak, people. Little impact on this winter's weather. The PNW should stop worrying about a repeat of 04-05. At this point, it seems reasonable to expect normal snowfall and normal temperatures. By about mid-October, we'll have some analogs set up. But right now it's still WAY TOO EARLY.

Aug 30 2009 12:36AM

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king.of.gnarnia

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washington state is fucked. damn. repeat of 2005

Aug 31 2009 7:35PM

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railsldr1242

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as long as the east doesnt get any rain then its all good

Aug 31 2009 10:12PM

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dex.

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EVERYBODY IS YELLING DIFFERENT SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Aug 31 2009 10:16PM

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Barmski

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Im going with what the natives and locals are saying here in Colorado: its never been this rainy of a summer in the longest time in Colorado. That being said, Colorado could potentially get hammered this winter...but you never know cause the weather is fucking crazy...

Sep 1 2009 12:04AM

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TGdude

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Sep 1 2009 12:16AM

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-ROY-

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well this isnt good for us midwesters

Sep 1 2009 12:19AM

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aznpcskier

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so glad I am moving from ut to vancouver

Sep 1 2009 12:24AM

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skialpental

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washington state better not get screwed like those forecasts show, this is my last year of being able to ski a lot

Sep 1 2009 2:17AM

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bfnradford

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WEATHER!

Sep 1 2009 2:25AM

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zagfan5

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they had to dig out the lifts just to run them it was so much.

i remember it would be pow days for a week or two strait, then a few days break, then another week or two of pow, and so on. it was amazing!

Sep 1 2009 2:31AM

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Dr.DRE

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Hell yeah east coast!

Sep 1 2009 11:31AM

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mynilla

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fuck el nino

Sep 1 2009 11:54AM

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miker92

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that prediction map looks promising, but i seem to remember that 2006-07 was an el nino year. the first half of the season sucked balls, then everything got kicked off with the valentines day storm and the rest of the winter was amazing. (east coast)

Sep 1 2009 12:04PM

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Contender

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ski the east baby

Sep 1 2009 12:05PM

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JMUIR

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what does this mean for Banff?

Sep 1 2009 12:55PM

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natirider10

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if i remember this was good for the cincinnati area, anyone know if it will be good this season

Sep 1 2009 8:38PM

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selkirks

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THE EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEAK AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON WINTER WEATHER THIS YEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN LATE FALL (I.E. NOVEMBER) AND GRADUALLY FADE THROUGHOUT THE WINTER. EVERY EL NINO IS DIFFERENT. JUST BECAUSE ONE EL NINO CAUSED THE WORST SEASON IN HISTORY OR THE MOST EPIC SEASON IN HISTORY DOES NOT MEAN THIS ONE WILL.

RELIABLE FORECASTS WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER. AND EVEN THOSE USUALLY END UP BEING WRONG. SO PLEASE DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP; YOU MAY ONLY DISAPPOINT YOURSELF. CONVERSELY, DON'T GET BUMMED OUT; YOU MAY ONLY BE IN FOR A SURPRISE LATER

Sep 1 2009 11:58PM

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Farquaharson

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i don't give a fuck right now really, i just want SNOW!

Sep 2 2009 12:46AM

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Skibumsmith

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FUCK

Sep 2 2009 12:53AM

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mozzy

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I recall that there is something like a 1-2 C difference in the average temperature during the winter that makes all the difference in the world for the fortunes of resorts like Whistler.

The base elevations of the PNW resorts are pretty low, it's like 3000-4500 feet or so?

Also, looking at the map, what does this mean for the southern Rockies (Wolf Creek / Taos)?

Sep 2 2009 4:48AM

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selkirks

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For the LAST TIME, THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS INFLUENCING THE WEATHER (NAO, PDO, etc.):

THE EL NINO IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEAK AND HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON WINTER WEATHER THIS YEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN LATE FALL (I.E. NOVEMBER) AND GRADUALLY FADE THROUGHOUT THE WINTER. EVERY EL NINO IS DIFFERENT. JUST BECAUSE ONE EL NINO CAUSED THE WORST SEASON IN HISTORY OR THE MOST EPIC SEASON IN HISTORY DOES NOT MEAN THIS ONE WILL.

RELIABLE FORECASTS WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL LATE OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER. AND EVEN THOSE USUALLY END UP BEING WRONG. SO PLEASE DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP; YOU MAY ONLY DISAPPOINT YOURSELF. CONVERSELY, DON'T GET BUMMED OUT; YOU MAY ONLY BE IN FOR A SURPRISE LATER.

CLIFFSNOTES: Forecasts and predictions mean nothing. Especially this early.

Sep 2 2009 9:17PM

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