Replying to EL NINO THIS WINTER, LIKELY

I pray this won't turn out for the worst. I cant take another year of this.


There was an El Nino condition in progress last year about this time. With El Nino, the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are warmer than normal, which triggers a shift in the world wide weather pattern. In the Pacific Northwest, an El Nino usually means that overall temperatures will be well above average and that precipitation levels will be below average.

Last year's El Nino began to dissipate about March of this year as the water in the equatorial Pacific grew colder, tending toward a La Nina condition, then it began to reverse itself last June and July. The current condition is that the ocean temperatures have returned to being warmer than normal, especially west of the International Date Line. That warmer condition is spreading to the east toward South America, but hasn't yet reached the El Nino stage.

The climate forecasters are calling the current situation ENSO Neutral (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) but say there's a good chance that El Nino may reappear by the end of 2003. In previous ENSO Neutral winters, the Pacific Northwest has seen higher than average temperatures (though not as high as with El Nino), but the results are uncertain for precipitation (some are higher, and some are lower).

So, the bottom line is, the overall forecast for the winter is somewhat uncertain regarding precipitation, but the overall temperatures probably will be above average.

From: www.wrh.noaa.gov/Seattle



-Eric