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OIL Crisis, will the world change?

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Nihiriju
Posts: 2061 - Karma: 27
So....i know people got tired of reading these threads, but i haven't seen one in awhile. In the near future there is going to be a huge shortage of oil, that isn't to say that we are running out, its that as oil becomes more rare it takes more energy to get it out of the ground, and the demand also goes up as there is less of it to be had.  Without oil are current social economic society can not operate. It took the Earth hundreads of millions of years to store up all of this energy in the form of Oil, and it is very difficult to create this much energy off of other fuel sources. The end of oil, or scarcity of it will also mean a lack of plastics, and many other regular day to day products.    ANYWAYS.......here is a new article from CBC recently published showing the International Energy Agencys (IEA) findings. Interesting to browse through. 
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2007/07/09/oilshortage070709.html

Here is another website with plenty more information on the matter and the concept of peak oil, it also trys to predict some repercushions of this event. 
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Jul 10 2007 3:39AM
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potato_man
Posts: 2158 - Karma: 89
run your cars on recycled vegetable oil! thatll solve part of the problem. unfortunately, you can only convert diesel motors to run on vegetable oil. but thr=ere you go! problem solved. almost.
Jul 10 2007 3:46AM
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RudyGarmisch
Posts: 25443 - Karma: 13,844
 Your repercushions. Show me them.
Jul 10 2007 5:06AM
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SHastatahoe
Posts: 3414 - Karma: 20
There will be no oil shortage. and if you want to be a gullible pussy about it, just remmeber that america owns ANWR. And despite all the oil down there, we could probobly still fabricate something out of all the Elk that we will be killing.
Jul 10 2007 5:16AM
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MitchPee
Posts: 8871 - Karma: 1,509
The earth won't run out of oil anytime soon. The US has enough oil on reserve that if we were to shut off all our boarders we would have enough to last 50 years. It is important to consider alternative fuels because of the hazards of using mass fossil fuels.
Jul 10 2007 7:54AM
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4FrntQC
Posts: 303 - Karma: 10
Whales have oil in them, don't they???
Jul 10 2007 8:34AM
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Free.Ski.Love
Posts: 98 - Karma: 20
ahhhh mass whale carnage!
Jul 10 2007 11:44AM
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*monsterskier*
Posts: 2671 - Karma: 61
i wonder if the future is going to resort to wat was done in the past...horse & buggy..or bikes...
Jul 10 2007 11:53AM
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hennessy1
Posts: 81 - Karma: 12
fuck the middle east
Jul 10 2007 12:01PM
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Tasche
Posts: 5422 - Karma: 99
There is a lot of misinformation in this thread.

First and foremost we are running out of oil. Fuck were running out of air land space. Everything is running out.

Technically there is a lot of oil in the ground (OOIP) but in an extremely good reservoir on primary recovery you could expect to see 10-40% OOIP recovery.

The united states reached its top production in the late 80's. That means we will never produce as much oil per day as we did then. We have very little reserves left in the ground. Compared to the middle east, venseulea, malasia we have basically nothing left.

The ANWAR does not have an ever lasting abundance of oil and a drilling operation in this desolate place would be harmful to the enviroment as well as extremely expensive. It would requirem amung other thing, the construction of a pipeline, roads, supply stations etc. All on permafrost.

That is not to say that there is not worth producing. It would lessen the strain on the oil market in the united states but it would only prolong the inevitable.

What is needed is nothing short of a redesign of not only the american lifestyle but cities.

The bottom line is if tomorrow someone came up with an alternative hydrogen motor oil would still be heavily relied on for at least 50 years.

vegetable oil is not a valid solution because of supply and demand and cost.

It requires more energy to make a gallon of E-85 than to dig up and refine a gallon of gas. The only reason this fuel seams viable is because of government tax breaks and farmer subsidies.

In the coming years with the drastic increase in the price of oil you will stat seeing more compact living, public transport, smaller houses, redefined communities, and more efficient cars.

I kind of rambled there because I don't feel like typing a whole lot but if you have any question about oil I can answer the technical parts and some of the economic reasons.
Jul 10 2007 12:30PM
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Nihiriju
Posts: 2061 - Karma: 27
Did you read anything I posted?   That is exactly what it says.....but because they knwo there is only enough oil for 50 years, its becomes a much more scarce and valuable resource. TMaking the price sky rocket, preventing any avaerage person from gaining acess to it, let alone developing third world countries that we rely on for labour and good production. 

What happens after 50 years? Thats not veyr long to find something to run our planet's economy and energy needs.....i mean we still have coal ( but maybe they include that in the idea of oil, i don't know)
Jul 10 2007 1:21PM
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RastaSkier9
Posts: 1563 - Karma: 15
By that time i better be driving a fucking hover craft, god i cant wait till the day that comes
Jul 10 2007 1:23PM
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Rez4frederick
Posts: 4740 - Karma: 40
Use up as much oil as you possibly can people.  ITs the only solution.  It will force us to change and quit relying on oil.   Im sick of all the people getting rich off of something the earth created.
Jul 10 2007 1:26PM
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Worst.NS.Member
Posts: 703 - Karma: 11
We dont need a dramatic re-design of anything really...
All we need are more nuclear powerplants and an improvement in battery technology and power delivery over the grid. Then we can have electric cars that run off of fission, with a byproduct of only steam and low-intensity radioactive rocks (that started out as very high intensity ones on the ground anyway)
Jul 10 2007 1:28PM
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4FrntQC
Posts: 303 - Karma: 10

I'm telling you, whales....if we want to we'll never ran out of them....mark my words whales are the future.
Jul 10 2007 1:39PM
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Tasche
Posts: 5422 - Karma: 99
I dont see how you can run a car of fission but nuclear power is a solution.

It really is the best power out there and because of two events it is completly ignored.
Jul 10 2007 1:44PM
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TheButterHashira
Posts: 9691 - Karma: 1,702
well if we can melt the ice caps i could just ride a whale to work
Jul 10 2007 1:44PM
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4FrntQC
Posts: 303 - Karma: 10
Well first, we're already melting the ice caps.

What i said is that whales have some sort of oil in them, if we really ran out of oil in the ground... whales are the future...
Jul 10 2007 1:50PM
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Edward.
Posts: 9366 - Karma: 445
lets kill all the whales!
Jul 10 2007 1:54PM
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ThaLetterM.
Posts: 8609 - Karma: 1,613
if our government would stop being gay and just built a couple new refineries, prices of oil would go down.

when you buy gas, you pay for the refinement of the oil. there have been no new refineries built since 1972.
Jul 10 2007 1:56PM
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skithebert
Posts: 2163 - Karma: 16
does anybody really believe that humans won't come up with a viable alternative to oil given a pressing need?
Jul 10 2007 2:04PM
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Nihiriju
Posts: 2061 - Karma: 27
they don't want to build more refineries, cuz they cost a fuck load to build, and they won't be in a decent level of service for more than 20 years. 

What peak oil says is that one we have hit peak oil production levels of oil comming out of the earth will receed. This isn't any drastic recession, but there are things you need to take into account. Say we hit peak oil in the year 2000, that means that the oil production levels in 2020, are going to be the same as they were in 1980. This doens't sound too bad does it? But then you must take into account how many more people will be living on earth in 2020 ( I think it is approximatley double that of 1980) You also have to take into account that as our technological factor gets higher a lot of our processes use a lot more oil. For instances a computer takes  2-10 times its wieght in oil to be built.  Thats not considering water either (I don't care about water though, i live in Canada and shortages haven't been a problem) I suppose that is everyone else mentality on oil.  the differnce is that our entire social economic system runs on oil.....we just need water to live. 
Jul 10 2007 2:05PM
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Nihiriju
Posts: 2061 - Karma: 27
So far nuclear power is the only viable replacedment for oil. There are a lot of people who "HATE" nuclear energy due to those 2 meltdowns. Also the staes is more reluctant to build them at the moment due to terrorist threats. 

Here is wikipeadia's take on Peak Oil. Pretty much says the same as the life after the oil crisis site, but shows the controversy more evenly. 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Jul 10 2007 2:14PM
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Shpadoinkle
Posts: 10437 - Karma: 84
veggie oil. diesel engines can run on anything.
Jul 10 2007 2:23PM
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SHastatahoe
Posts: 3414 - Karma: 20
veggie oils still produce just as much CO2, as well as some unique toxins that octanes don't emit. In fact, going green is worste for the environment. hydrogen cars, or something else is the only thing that will stop pollution.
Jul 10 2007 5:48PM
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Tasche
Posts: 5422 - Karma: 99
60% of hydrogen comes from natural gas
Jul 10 2007 5:51PM
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Jamesl48
Posts: 547 - Karma: 10
The world will change when fossil fuels become more expensive due to scarcity than their alternatives.

However, that won't happen for a few decades. As long as gas remains cheaper than alternatives people will continue to use it.
Jul 10 2007 6:22PM
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wrenegade
Posts: 6631 - Karma: 41
I don't think you know anything about nuclear power.
Jul 10 2007 6:29PM
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RudyGarmisch
Posts: 25443 - Karma: 13,844
Most people seem to want to believe that we have fantastic foresight as a species.
Jul 10 2007 6:33PM
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PilleDaKid
Posts: 3193 - Karma: 2,629
I dont think you do either young one.

400
Jul 10 2007 6:36PM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
ethanol 85 bitches.
Jul 10 2007 6:44PM
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DANETRON
Posts: 6671 - Karma: 137
still a mix of gas and eth
Jul 10 2007 6:46PM
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jadHafeedChris
Posts: 191 - Karma: 10
hydrogen etanol or what ever or i guess if it really came to it we can drill in alaska and get free oil :)
Jul 10 2007 6:46PM
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RudyGarmisch
Posts: 25443 - Karma: 13,844
Which actually takes more energy to make than what you get from burning it.
Jul 10 2007 6:50PM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
They have developed a lot of new ways of making ethenol 85 dude.

In Brazil, 95% of all cars in the country run on ethenol made from sugarcane. Seeing as Brazil has like the 5th largest population on the planet (behind Russia), I think thats a good indicator that ethenol works.

A town in Indiana has completely made all of their cars converted to ethenol. At least 8 other towns accross the nation have decided to do the same thing. Its a smart thing to do.
Jul 10 2007 6:55PM
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troutbum
Posts: 825 - Karma: 11
This article, on ethanol, was in Fly Rod & Reel a few months back, worth a read:

http://www.southerncouncilfff.org/conservation/UnderTheInfluence.php
Jul 10 2007 6:57PM
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MitchPee
Posts: 8871 - Karma: 1,509
After 50 years we will still have oil. I read what you posted and I was just adding. The world has far more oil reserves to last more than 50 years, it could very well last 300, but that really depends on China, India, and the other future mass consumers of developed nations.
Jul 10 2007 7:01PM
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MLB
Posts: 4462 - Karma: 298
fuck it, ethanol, biodiesel, and Hydrogen Fuel cells rock it the best. You don't even need to do anything to your diesel car/truck to run it off of biodiesel.
Jul 10 2007 7:03PM
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C-Burg
Posts: 4729 - Karma: 130
it is not in the near future
Jul 10 2007 7:13PM
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ATLskier
Posts: 8203 - Karma: 406
First, there are some really smart things said in this thread, but there are some really fucking stupid things said too.

First, yeah, sure, we are running out of oil, but we've been running out of it since we started using it.  There is so much oil out there.  Tons.  There are many untapped reserves out there.  do yall know what the country has the second highest amount of oil in oil reserves?  fucking canada.  How much oil is canada exporting?  Def. not even close to what it could.  Did yall know there are tons of oil fields off the coast of florida?  California?  They are in utah, colorado, whyoming.  Oil is everywhere.  And on many fields it is not too expensive to take out(after 9/11 when oil prices went up, people started pumping oil again in WY.  Unfortunately, I think dick cheney owns that whole state, so he's making mad bank on that shit). 

We have much more oil than just 50 years.  And in 50 years, technology will allow us not even to use oil, or at least cut it down drstically.  50 years is a really long time.  Some great alternatives have been presented in the last 10-20 years, and many of them just need some fine tuning or cheaper ways to make them.  Im confident that in 50 years the level of technology will be high enough to make many alternative's to oil more realistic for people.



You actually bring up a great point about american cities.  Developers right now are doing shit for the people that will live in their neighborhoods, shit for the environment, and shit for communities, at least developers making subdivisions like this:

Click for larger image

Looks nice right?  Nice lakes, looks like a nice community?  BULLSHIT.  There are 2 entrances to that subdivision for hundreds of homes.  If you live there, you will have to drive everywhere.  Pretty much every new housing development looks like that.  Not only do neighborhoods like this hurt the environment by making everyone drive cars to do anything, they drastically reduce the quality of life compared to what someone living in a traditional  neighborhood like this:

Click for larger image

Basically just look at the houses on the left.  Neighborhoods like this were built pre 1950 and were designed with the pedestrian in mind creating shorter distances.  The new neighborhoods were built with  cars in mind.  The older, traditional, linear style allows more people to walk the streets, to go to work, the store, to a park.  With more people on the street, the street is safer, and creates a more lively community and greater quality of life.  By designing neighborhoods and new developments with this in mind, you can drastically reduce trafiic and effects on the environment.


One thing that can really help is desgning multi use developments, putting work, living and retail in the same block or in close proximity to allow for more walking, and less driving.



Also, green architecture is starting to get really big.  Having more effecient homes and buildings will really help our problem, as well as save a lot of money. 




Jul 10 2007 7:53PM
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Free.Ski.Love
Posts: 98 - Karma: 20
yes but aside from the fact we'd be slaughtering whales in mass quantity, the whole point is that we cant keep using oil!!
Jul 10 2007 8:06PM
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PacificRimJob
Posts: 24725 - Karma: 29,944
I did my senior project in high school on this whole thing.

Neighborhoods like this take up land. They make it so you have to drive further, they are hotter because there are fewer trees - meaning less oxygen and less shade = poorer air and more air conditioning use.

Jul 10 2007 8:20PM
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Jamesl48
Posts: 547 - Karma: 10
Refinery crunches are only one of the numerous factors behind recent gasoline prices spikes.

The price of crude oil has risen considerably in recent years. Even with sufficient refining capacity, prices would have increased.

Also, Government environmental regulations are only one reason why no oil refineries have been built in the US in over 30 years. A major reason why no new refineries has been built is because US oil companies doubt their future profitability.

Seriously, no one is more concerned about the prospect of Hubbert's Peak than the oil companies. They don't want to build a multi-billion dollar facility that may be obsolete within a few decades.
Jul 10 2007 8:21PM
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Tasche
Posts: 5422 - Karma: 99
I am in the petroleum industry and you guys can ask me any questions you want about oil and I will try to answer them to the best of my ability.
Jul 10 2007 9:01PM
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Nihiriju
Posts: 2061 - Karma: 27
The point is, the world as we know it will change. Our entire economy is based on oil, we can't manufacuture or transport many of ours good without. Our agriculture is in what is called deficiet production, this means that we put more energy into the ground, (in the forms of trasnporting water, synthesizing nutrients, and harvesting techniques, all available to us do to oil) then the energy we get out from the plants growing.  A world without oil will be a small world where good are not transported across the world, or across countries, things will have to be produced locally, which means and end to specialization and therefor an end to great advancements in technology ( in many differnt areas) human need will still push in certain areas, but no where near the levels we see today. Essentially it means  a change to globalization or the end all of it.    I know most poeple think of globalization as a bad thing, but liek it or not, thats how our soceity is run, and that is why we are on top right now. 
Jul 10 2007 9:35PM
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skithebert
Posts: 2163 - Karma: 16
who said anything about foresight? something is gonna have to change eventually, that's all the foresight we need. I have complete faith that our species will come up with a viable alternative if we absolutely have to. there's too many smart people in this world. neccessity breads creation.
Jul 10 2007 10:29PM
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SteezePatrol
Posts: 10281 - Karma: 36
when i see an adult on a bike, i have hope for mankind
Jul 10 2007 10:32PM
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troutbum
Posts: 825 - Karma: 11
especially one in a suit, headed to work.
Jul 10 2007 10:34PM
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bangarangmules
Posts: 5065 - Karma: 84
good post.
Jul 10 2007 10:38PM
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sdfjklioeur
Posts: 2082 - Karma: 114
bingo
Jul 10 2007 11:41PM
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Jamesl48
Posts: 547 - Karma: 10
When the world is weened off oil there will obviously be a transition period, but transportation methods will adapt. The technology exists right now to continue economic activity with much less reliance on oil, we simply don't because gasoline power is cheaper.

For example, if the need arose (i.e. oil supplies began to dwindle) we could build more nuclear, solar, coal, wind, and hydro electric power plants. Then these energy sources could potentially power battery electric automobiles (for which the technology exists and is feasible) or trains that would keep the economy moving.

Without oil, transportation would need to be accomplished more through electric or ethanol powered vehicles, but if the need arose the economy could adapt. We are not doomed without oil.
Jul 10 2007 11:56PM
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