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Beginning of miracle march?
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
505 AM PST FRI FEB 24 2006
CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-251200-
SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-
BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-
CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-
WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
505 AM PST FRI FEB 24 2006
...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A RETURN TO A VERY
WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A VERY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH WILL
TAP INTO WARM AND VERY MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR THAT WILL SURGE
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. ONE OF THE COMPUTER MODELS IS FORECASTING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA.
SNOW LEVELS MAY INITIALLY BE NEAR THE PASSES ON INTERSTATE 80 AND
HIGHWAY 50. ..BUT ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA...AND TO AROUND 4000 FEET OVER THE SHASTA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND COASTAL RANGE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS WET...AND RELATIVELY MILD STORM.
RAIN...SNOW AND WIND WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER...A MUCH COLDER STORM IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE INTERIOR
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY...AND LINGER OVER THE AREA
INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM WILL NOT TAP AS MUCH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AS THE INITIAL STORM...IT WILL BE A SLOW MOVING STORM. THE
COLDER AIR WITH THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MUCH LOWER SNOW LEVELS..
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE LOWER FOOTHILLS. THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A
FLUFFY...POWDERY SNOW WITH A HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO...AND THE
SNOW WILL PILE UP RAPIDLY.
PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES
ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN.
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hopefully it will be snow and not rain, I get really depressed when it rains at the summit.
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THE COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A
FLUFFY...POWDERY SNOW WITH A HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO...AND THE
SNOW WILL PILE UP RAPIDLY.
HAHAHAH here comes the dope shit again, I can't wait for next week......
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THERE IS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NEVADA. STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THE GFS SHOWS 5 INCHES FOR THE SIERRA AND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR WESTERN NEVADA...AND THOSE ESTIMATES ARE PROBABLY LOW. USING A 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO...YIELDS 3 TO 6 FEET OF SNOW.
Had to share those numbers from the N.W.S. forecast discussion.
NO RAIN PLEASE!!!!!
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SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY RISE ABOVE 8000 FEET BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS GOOD CHANCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL AFFECT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
BELOW 7000 TO 8000 FEET IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
It better not rain that high up. Fuck, Alpine is what? 8000 some feet at the summit, 6700' at base. Who wants to hit up Rose sometime this weekend to build a booter for this snow to fill in the landing?
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snow snow snow snow snow.
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and i just have to be in stupid big bear next week.
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High snow levels = backcountry on donner and multiple feet = donner backcountry cliffs
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hope it doesnt rain, my bro is flying in monday night for the week.
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I have a feeling this storm will be one of two things
1. a miracle with tons os snow.
2. a disaster with tons of rain.
Lets hope scenario 1 plays out, it's all about temps though.
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NOAA says the tahoe area can expect 1-2" of heavy rain immediately followed by 3-6 feet of heavy snow. Check the batteries in those beacons fellas---
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whats the weather forecast for mammoth?
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same precip potential with the snow level starting at 9000ft as compared to tahoe's snow level at 8000ft. it will be wet there as well but not as bad as here.
I talked to Caltrans today and they are planning on 2-3 inches of rain at the I-80 summit turning to snow monday midnight followed by 2-3 ft of snow by tuesday afternoon. Caltrans hooks us up at Boreal with their insider weather info.
Later Skaters
Eric
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Jea.. i have a horrible feeling its gonna be number 2.. im just gonna sit by the fire and chill for the next week then think about it.
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i like erics post better than nicks.
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noaa and weather.com have two completely different forecasts, im liking the weather.com one right now.
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the three major modeling services have not all agreed until this morning that the snow level will be over 8000ft. Any chance for major snow in this first wave has faded. however, wed/sat storm is being compared to a top ten all time Reno/western Nv snow storm..atleast thats what the noaa forecast discussion is hinting at...what that means for us up at elevation I don't know and they aren't saying either.
Hope for the best
Later Skaters
Eric
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I may have just shit myself...JEA JEA JEA
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haha dude your gonna find yourself saying jea to EVERYTHING , ii think our crew's when joined together should be called the JEA possie
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oh snap. I just might have to head up on thursday if this turns into anything big.
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Just wait till thursdays storm..
That will be the clincher.
The subtropical jet and polar jet are gonna merge and bring a fat storm in.
I expect 14 inches of insanely light snow by next weekend...
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dont change it, the dcrew out of minnesota is a bunch of shit talking pussies.....dont let em have it.
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mudflap whats its looking like up there? It's pouring in Truckee, but hoping its at least trying to snow up there. Whats the elevation at the top of boreal?
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i was up there 2 hours ago and it was raining, boreal shutdown for the day.. nah where still Dcrew but when shredteam and dcrew shralp together in a ski orgy we shoudl be called Jea crew.
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yeah we sold 7 lift tickets today and shutdown at 4pm. pretty much everyone was sent home in the morning so we were basically shut down with a skeleton staff during the day.
it was trying hard to snow all day. the snow line drifted back and forth between the parking lot and the summit. it either poured rain or was white liquid snow. maybe an inch or two accumulated on the hill. it could have been alot worse and just been solid rain like the noaa and caltrans reported. it did snow pretty hard last night for a few hours..near whiteout the cat operators reported and sticking but most everything that stuck got washed out this morning with the periods of rain.
the good news is we dont have any lakes up on the hill like the last time it rained this much. the bad news is that all of our reports progressively state less and less snow after the rain.
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word to that indeed, i think i was hearing jea every sentence! but im thinking it could be called 'mob jea'
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dang, i was hoping this storm would bring like 9999999999999 feet of freshhhh. All I know is its raining hard down here in sf
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Here we go:
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES AT LAKE
LEVEL WITH 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
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Yesssssssss, oh i love snow so much! it puts me in the best mood
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Saturday is going to be SICK!!! Man, the powderhounds will be out this weekend. It's going to be an early morning for sure.
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im putting my homework into overdrive this week.....anticipating a long day of skiing saturday
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more like cuddleing with your G/f
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I just got back in from Alpine. It's out of control. I work over at TASS and it's been dumping w/ about a 1.5 feet and Summit chair is actually open! 2 more hours of work and then I'm back at it. Tomorrow should be even better.
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ooohh SNAP here we go saturday
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is tomorrow worth going ?
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Andy, if you don't get your F@N ass out there by 8:55 sharp, I will burn your textbooks and send your g/f to Madegascar. See you there buddy.
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^You tell em lief
This part of the storm seems to be disappating and not produceing like they said it would, hopefully it will get a second wind or there will be another one behind it with more snow.
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Where are you guys headed on saturday?
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We got about another foot today in the parking lot. I don't know about the upper-mountain. See you all at Nine on Summit to find out. I'll be wearing tore-up black pants and a dirty-ass quicksilver jacket w/ some mo-ships.
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yeah lief im gonna have to deny heavenly this weekend, i only want to ski park there anyways, Im going to alpine and shralping with... whomever i can find.
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hmm, maybe ill visit alpine this weekend
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