Discussion from NWS.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE HIGH SPREAD IN THE
ENSEMBLE DATA
AHEAD OF THE
MEAN TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MUCH LESS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...
WHICH BRINGS CONFIDENCE IN A CHANGE TO COOLER CONDITIONS.
AS STATED BEFORE THE MAIN ISSUE TO THE FORECAST IS TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AND INITIAL POLAR
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM
WARM CONDITIONS TO COLD CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT MAY ENTER THE NORTHERN
AREAS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE A SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL AFFECT THE FORECASTS FOR WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE
FRONT
APPROACHES...WITH THE STRONG
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
HIGH
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE DROPS 20-30 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY...WITH 15-20MB SURFACE
GRADIENT OVER NEVADA.
SECOND ISSUE IS THE TRACK OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH/PARENT LOW AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
GFS REMAINS THE LEAST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN TRYING TO DRIVE THE
TROUGH FARTHER OFFSHORE AND BRING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED A MORE CONSISTENT OVERLAND
TRACK. WHICH EVER SOLUTION PLAYS OUT...
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM ONLY MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE/QPF ARE NECESSARY TO
BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF POWDERY SNOW TO THE REGION.
Start burning skis, and praying for snow...
